{"id":2959,"date":"2024-07-07T03:12:03","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T07:12:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/rays-vs-rangers-betting-guide-july-07-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-07T14:32:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-07T18:32:02","slug":"rays-vs-rangers-betting-guide-july-07-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/rays-vs-rangers-betting-guide-july-07-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs Rangers Betting Guide – July 07, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Tampa<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Texas<\/p>\n

Texas Rangers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+115<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-120\/+100)<\/span>-135<\/span><\/div>\n

The Texas Rangers, hosting the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on July 7, 2024, find themselves in the midst of an underwhelming season. With a 41-48 record, the Rangers have struggled to gain momentum, while the Rays, sitting at 44-45, have managed to stay somewhat afloat, thanks to a series of consistent performances.<\/p>\n

Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Rangers, bringing his solid 3.15<\/a> ERA and above-average status as the 63rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his strong ERA, Eovaldi’s peripheral stats\u20143.67 SIERA and 3.74 xERA\u2014suggest he may have been fortunate this season and could regress. However, he should benefit from facing a Rays offense that ranks 26th in home runs and lacks the power to challenge his high ground-ball tendencies. Eovaldi projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.5 batters, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.<\/p>\n

Zack Littell, on the bump for the Rays, comes in with a 3.94<\/a> ERA over 16 starts. His projections are less favorable than Eovaldi’s, with an expected 5.5 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 4.3 strikeouts. Littell faces a Rangers offense that ranks 21st overall, indicating a below-average lineup. <\/p>\n

The Rangers’ Wyatt Langford has been on a tear, batting .381 with an impressive 1.194 OPS over the last week, while Isaac Paredes from the Rays has also been strong, posting a 1.156 OPS and two home runs in his last six games.<\/p>\n

The Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 19th, slightly trails the Rays’ 13th-ranked bullpen, potentially giving Tampa Bay a late-game edge. The betting markets have the Rangers at -135, with an implied win probability of 55%, making them slight favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays’ moneyline of +115 implies a 45% chance of victory. With both teams’ offenses struggling and strong pitching on both sides, the 7.5 run Game Total suggests a low-scoring affair.<\/p>\n

Overall, this matchup appears balanced, but the Rangers’ recent offensive form and Eovaldi’s knack for ground balls might give them the slight edge needed to clinch the series’ third game.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Zack Littell – Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Zack Littell projects to average 1.2 walks in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Ben Rortvedt – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In terms of his batting average, Ben Rortvedt has had positive variance on his side this year. His .269 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Texas Rangers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Nathan Eovaldi – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 63.1% of the time, ranking in the 88th percentile.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Wyatt Langford – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      Texas Rangers hitters as a group rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) in regard to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+15.60 Units \/ 19% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Tampa Bay Rays – Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 86 games (+26.25 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Marcus Semien – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-235\/+175)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+15.45 Units \/ 29% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        <\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Texas Rangers, hosting the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on July 7, 2024, find themselves in the midst of an underwhelming season. With a 41-48 record, the… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[359,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,295,73,360,282,281,25,28,358],"class_list":["post-2959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-ben-rortvedt","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-jonah-heim","tag-mlb","tag-nathan-eovaldi","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-texas-rangers","tag-zack-littell"],"yoast_head":"\nRays vs Rangers Betting Guide - July 07, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/rays-vs-rangers-betting-guide-july-07-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rays vs Rangers Betting Guide - July 07, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Texas Rangers, hosting the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field on July 7, 2024, find themselves in the midst of an underwhelming season. 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