{"id":284512,"date":"2025-09-18T02:38:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T06:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/expert-player-predictions-for-marlins-vs-rockies-thursday-september-18-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T18:12:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T22:12:02","slug":"expert-player-predictions-for-marlins-vs-rockies-thursday-september-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/expert-player-predictions-for-marlins-vs-rockies-thursday-september-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Rockies &#8211; Thursday, September 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIA.png\" alt=\"Miami Marlins logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Miami Marlins<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/COL.png\" alt=\"Colorado Rockies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Colorado Rockies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-170<\/span><span>O\/U: 10<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>+150<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 18, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their last encounter, where the Rockies fell 8-4. With the Rockies struggling at 41-111 this season, their chances of turning things around appear slim, especially against a Marlins team that, while below average at 72-80, has shown more consistency.<\/p>\n<p>On the mound, Tanner Gordon takes the hill for the Rockies, projected to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs. Despite a recent strong outing where he went 6 innings with just 1 earned run and 9 strikeouts, Gordon&#8217;s overall performance this season has been underwhelming, ranking as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB. His low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Marlins offense that is not particularly strikeout-prone.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Sandy Alcantara, who ranks 51st among starting pitchers, is expected to deliver a solid performance, projecting 5.6 innings with 3.2 earned runs allowed. Alcantara&#8217;s recent form includes a commendable outing of 7 innings pitched with 2 earned runs and 8 strikeouts. His ability to exploit the Rockies&#8217; high strikeout rate\u2014ranking 2nd in MLB\u2014could give Miami a significant edge.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Rockies rank a dismal 27th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Marlins sit at a more respectable 18th. The Rockies&#8217; best hitter has been heating up, boasting a .476 batting average over the last week, which could provide a glimmer of hope. However, with the Marlins projected to score 5.62 runs based on current odds, they are favored to take this matchup. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Miami Marlins Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Sandy Alcantara &#8211; Over\/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+155\/-205)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Sandy Alcantara has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Graham Pauley &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-235\/+180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Graham Pauley is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today&#8217;s game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Miami Marlins are expected to record the 2nd-most runs (5.89 on average) on the slate today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Colorado Rockies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tanner Gordon &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Tanner Gordon has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 53% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kyle Karros &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145\/-190)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Kyle Karros has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the past two weeks.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e.  over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Ryan Ritter, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Colorado Rockies &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 149 games (+17.50 Units \/ 10% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Miami Marlins &#8211; Moneyline (-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 away games (+16.30 Units \/ 34% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Hunter Goodman &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Hunter Goodman has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.65 Units \/ 64% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.15.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 18, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their last encounter, where the Rockies fell 8-4.&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":284513,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[16,915,1050,26,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,826,454],"class_list":["post-284512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-colorado-rockies","tag-heriberto-hernandez","tag-kyle-karros","tag-miami-marlins","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-sandy-alcantara","tag-tanner-gordon"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Rockies - Thursday, September 18, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies matchup on September 18, 2025. 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