{"id":265081,"date":"2025-09-03T06:09:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T10:09:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/review-the-yankees-vs-astros-match-preview-and-winning-probability-september-3rd-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T23:37:04","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T03:37:04","slug":"review-the-yankees-vs-astros-match-preview-and-winning-probability-september-3rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/review-the-yankees-vs-astros-match-preview-and-winning-probability-september-3rd-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Review the Yankees vs Astros Match Preview and Winning Probability &#8211; September 3rd, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/NYY.png\" alt=\"New York Yankees logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>New York Yankees<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-145<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>+120<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 3, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their playoff positioning with just weeks left in the regular season. The Astros currently hold a record of 76-63, while the Yankees are slightly better at 77-61. This matchup is particularly significant since the Yankees are in contention for a Wild Card spot, making every game crucial.<\/p>\n<p>In their previous encounter, the Yankees emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Astros to even the series at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have been performing above average, but with their offense ranking 13th overall, they will need to step up against a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in the league. The Yankees have been particularly potent lately, with their best hitter recording 9 hits, 9 runs, and 3 home runs over the last week, showcasing their offensive prowess.<\/p>\n<p>On the mound, Jason Alexander is projected to start for the Astros. While his 4-1 record and average ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.61<\/a> suggest some stability, advanced stats indicate he ranks as the 236th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the weaker links in the rotation. Alexander has struggled with strikeouts and is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing an alarming 3.2 earned runs on average.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, Will Warren is set to take the mound for the Yankees. Though he is also considered a below-average pitcher, his 5.3 innings pitched projection and a <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.30<\/a> ERA show that he can be serviceable. Warren&#8217;s control issues could play into the Astros&#8217; hands, as they rank 6th in the league for least walks drawn.<\/p>\n<p>With a high game total set at 9.0 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on their offensive strengths and exploit their opponent&#8217;s weaknesses, making this matchup one to watch closely.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">New York Yankees Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Will Warren &#8211; Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Tallying 14.6 outs per GS this year on average, Will Warren ranks in the 16th percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ben Rice &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">In terms of his batting average, Ben Rice has had some very poor luck this year.  His .242 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .300.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>New York Yankees &#8211;  Moneyline (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jason Alexander &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team&#8217;s projected lineup, Jason Alexander will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ramon Urias &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Ramon Urias has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 40% in the last 7 days.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Houston&#8217;s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #29 overall.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 126 games (+18.50 Units \/ 12% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.85 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Aaron Judge &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Walks (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Aaron Judge has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.90 Units \/ 20% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.12.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 3, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their playoff positioning with just weeks left in the&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":265082,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,374,541,250,248,251,29,241,962,242,249,243,73,13,246,239,240,253,245,252,811,244],"class_list":["post-265081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-ben-rice","tag-christian-walker","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-houston-astros","tag-insights","tag-jason-alexander","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-will-warren","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Review the Yankees vs Astros Match Preview and Winning Probability - September 3rd, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros on September 3, 2025. 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