{"id":262316,"date":"2025-09-01T04:48:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T08:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-the-mariners-vs-rays-betting-guide-and-expert-picks-9-1-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-01T23:46:28","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T03:46:28","slug":"check-out-the-mariners-vs-rays-betting-guide-and-expert-picks-9-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-the-mariners-vs-rays-betting-guide-and-expert-picks-9-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out the Mariners vs Rays Betting Guide and Expert Picks &#8211; 9\/1\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SEA.png\" alt=\"Seattle Mariners logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Seattle Mariners<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/TB.png\" alt=\"Tampa Bay Rays logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-110<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The matchup on September 1, 2025, features the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Seattle Mariners at George M. Steinbrenner Field. This game is significant as it marks the first in a series between two teams with differing fortunes this season. The Rays, currently sitting at 67-69, have been having an average season, while the Mariners boast a stronger record of 73-64, indicating an above-average performance.<\/p>\n<p>In their most recent outings, the Mariners have continued to show their power, with a robust lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for home runs, totaling 195 this season. However, they face a challenge against Shane Baz, projected to start for the Rays. Baz, despite his 5.19 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>, has an xFIP of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">3.89<\/a>, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better than his numbers indicate. His groundball rate of 48% could work in his favor against a powerful Mariners offense that thrives on home runs.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Luis Castillo is set to take the mound for Seattle. Despite being rated as an average pitcher, he has a solid 3.75 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a regression based on his xERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.37<\/a>. Castillo&#8217;s low walk rate of 6.7% could be beneficial against a Rays offense that draws the 4th least walks in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>The Rays&#8217; offense ranks 16th overall but leads the league in stolen bases, which could create additional pressure on Castillo. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, and the betting markets favoring the Mariners slightly, this game is poised to be tightly contested, especially with both teams&#8217; bullpens ranked in the top 10. The projections suggest the Rays may have a better chance than the odds reflect, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Seattle Mariners Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Luis Castillo &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Luis Castillo has gone to his secondary pitches 5.6% less often this season (31%) than he did last year (36.6%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jorge Polanco &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-170\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Seattle Mariners &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Shane Baz &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Among all starters, Shane Baz&#8217;s fastball velocity of 96.2 mph grades out in the 91st percentile this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Junior Caminero &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Junior Caminero has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 97-mph over the past 7 days.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yandy Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league&#8217;s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tampa Bay Rays &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 127 games (+13.85 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 123 games (+9.90 Units \/ 7% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chandler Simpson &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-220\/+165)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.60 Units \/ 38% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.9.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The matchup on September 1, 2025, features the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Seattle Mariners at George M. Steinbrenner Field. This game is significant as it marks the first in&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":262317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,285,442,759,441,73,282,281,4,438,25,449],"class_list":["post-262316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-jorge-polanco","tag-junior-caminero","tag-luis-castillo","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-shane-baz","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-yandy-diaz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out the Mariners vs Rays Betting Guide and Expert Picks - 9\/1\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays on September 1, 2025. 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