{"id":256900,"date":"2025-08-28T00:48:03","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T04:48:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/top-player-prop-picks-for-rockies-vs-astros-august-28-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-28T14:12:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T18:12:04","slug":"top-player-prop-picks-for-rockies-vs-astros-august-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/top-player-prop-picks-for-rockies-vs-astros-august-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Astros &#8211; August 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/COL.png\" alt=\"Colorado Rockies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Colorado Rockies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+205<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-245<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Houston Astros host the Colorado Rockies on August 28, 2025, the stakes aren&#8217;t high for the Rockies, who have significantly struggled this season with a record of 38-95. The Astros, however, maintain a solid standing with a record of 73-60, showcasing their ability to compete effectively, currently sitting in playoff contention.<\/p>\n<p>In their last matchup, the Astros delivered a commanding 4-0 victory, which solidified their advantage in this Interleague series. The Astros will send Jason Alexander to the mound, who is coming off a decent outing on August 21, where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. His 4-1 record and average ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.59<\/a> suggest he could perform capably, especially facing a Rockies lineup that ranks as the 27th best in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>On the opposing side, the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, who has not had a favorable season, evident in his 3-13 record and high ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">5.31<\/a>. Freeland&#8217;s last start was particularly troubling, as he surrendered 5 earned runs over 5 innings. His struggles might continue against a potent Astros offense that ranks 6th in team batting average and boasts the league\u2019s 13th best overall offensive performance.<\/p>\n<p>Betting markets favor the Astros heavily with a moneyline of -235, reflecting a high implied team total of 5.10 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies, with their meager performance this season, face a low implied team total of 3.40 runs. As the Astros aim to capitalize on their home advantage and solid offensive output, this matchup presents a clear disparity in form and current capability, making the Astros the likely victors in this encounter.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Colorado Rockies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kyle Freeland &#8211; Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 85 pitches in today&#8217;s game (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ezequiel Tovar &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Braxton Fulford &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Today, Braxton Fulford is at a disadvantage facing the league&#8217;s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (87th percentile).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jason Alexander &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jason Alexander will have the handedness advantage over 7 opposing batters in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cesar Salazar &#8211; Over\/Under Total Bases<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Cesar Salazar is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Today\u2019s version of the Astros projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .326 overall projected rate.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality.  If today&#8217;s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren&#8217;t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+13.35 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Colorado Rockies &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+12.45 Units \/ 8% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cam Smith &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Cam Smith has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units \/ 51% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.13.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Houston Astros host the Colorado Rockies on August 28, 2025, the stakes aren&#8217;t high for the Rockies, who have significantly struggled this season with a record of 38-95.&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":256901,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[16,395,29,876,962,417,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226],"class_list":["post-256900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-colorado-rockies","tag-ezequiel-tovar","tag-houston-astros","tag-hunter-goodman","tag-jason-alexander","tag-kyle-freeland","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Top Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Astros - August 28, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros matchup on August 28, 2025. 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