{"id":23827,"date":"2024-07-29T04:12:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T08:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/nationals-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-odds-7-29-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-29T21:43:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-30T01:43:02","slug":"nationals-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-odds-7-29-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/nationals-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-odds-7-29-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Nationals vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Odds – 7\/29\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Washington<\/p>\n

Washington Nationals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+145<\/span>O\/U: 9
(+110\/-130)<\/span>-165<\/span><\/div>\n

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field on July 29, 2024, in a National League matchup. Arizona, with a record of 55-51, is having an above-average season, bolstered by their #8 ranked offense in MLB. Meanwhile, Washington’s subpar record of 49-57 reflects their struggles, particularly with an offense that ranks 25th overall.<\/p>\n

For Arizona, left-hander Jordan Montgomery (7-5, 6.11<\/a> ERA) is slated to start. Despite a poor ERA, Montgomery’s 4.63 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Montgomery averages 5.3 innings per start, allowing 2.5 earned runs and 6.0 hits, with a low strikeout rate of 14.9%. His last outing on July 23 saw him pitch well, giving up just 1 earned run over 5 innings. <\/p>\n

On the other side, Washington will counter with lefty Mitchell Parker (5-6, 4.34<\/a> ERA). Parker has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his last start on July 24, where he got shelled for 6 earned runs in 3 innings. Projected to pitch 4.7 innings, Parker is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.5 hits, while striking out just 3.7 batters on average. <\/p>\n

Arizona\u2019s bats, led by Ketel Marte, who boasts a .296<\/a> average and a .900 OPS, could be crucial in exploiting Parker\u2019s vulnerabilities. Marte has been particularly hot over the past week, hitting .421 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. In contrast, the Nationals\u2019 top hitter, CJ Abrams, has struggled to provide consistent power, although he does bring speed with 19 stolen bases.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Arizona a 63% chance of winning this game, aligning closely with the betting odds that imply a 60% win probability. With Arizona\u2019s potent offense and superior bullpen, the D-Backs are poised to kick off this series with a win against the Nationals.<\/p>\n

Washington Nationals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Mitchell Parker – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Given his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will benefit from matching up with 7 bats in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    James Wood – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    James Wood is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#3-best of the day).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    James Wood – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    James Wood hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% \u2014 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Jordan Montgomery – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jordan Montgomery’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (91.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.6 mph).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Gabriel Moreno – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits (+185\/-245)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (+110\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.10 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.50 Units \/ 8% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Jake McCarthy – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155\/-205)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.75 Units \/ 57% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field on July 29, 2024, in a National League matchup. Arizona, with a record of 55-51, is having an above-average… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23828,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,145,285,563,144,59,73,282,281,11],"class_list":["post-23827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-corbin-carroll","tag-expert-picks","tag-james-wood","tag-jordan-montgomery","tag-mitchell-parker","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-washington-nationals"],"yoast_head":"\nNationals vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Odds - 7\/29\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on July 29, 2024. 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