{"id":226153,"date":"2025-08-04T04:09:03","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T08:09:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/betting-odds-and-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-8-04-25\/"},"modified":"2025-08-04T22:47:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T02:47:02","slug":"betting-odds-and-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-8-04-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/betting-odds-and-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-8-04-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting Odds and Picks for Reds vs Cubs – 8\/04\/25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+115<\/span>O\/U: 7
(-120\/+100)<\/span>-135<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 4, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, boasting a strong record of 65-46, have been on a roll and are currently ranked 3rd in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Reds hold a respectable 58-54 record, placing them in the middle of the pack offensively. In their last outing, the Cubs emerged victorious against the Reds, winning 5-3, which adds extra motivation for Cincinnati as they seek to turn the tide.<\/p>\n

On the mound, the Cubs will send Mike Soroka to the hill. Despite a challenging season reflected in his 3-8 record and an ERA of 4.87<\/a>, Soroka\u2019s 4.06 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting a potential for improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 1.9 earned runs, which can be considered solid for a starting pitcher. <\/p>\n

Opposing him is Nick Lodolo, who has performed well this season with an 8-6 record and a stellar ERA of 3.09<\/a>. However, his projection suggests he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP sits at 3.66, indicating he might have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Lodolo is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs.<\/p>\n

The Cubs enter this matchup as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their status as a stronger team on paper. While the Reds have shown flashes of promise, their offense ranks 14th in MLB, which may hinder their ability to capitalize against a solid Cubs pitching staff. With both teams looking to build momentum, this game could be pivotal for their respective seasons.<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Nick Lodolo – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Matt McLain – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In the last 14 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Mike Soroka – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Mike Soroka is projected to strikeout 6.2 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Willi Castro – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180\/+140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Willi Castro’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 80.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
      According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all major league teams.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+11.05 Units \/ 14% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+22.20 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Nico Hoerner – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-190\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units \/ 30% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 4, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, boasting… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":226154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,14,15,533,285,825,806,73,475,282,281],"class_list":["post-226153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-dansby-swanson","tag-expert-picks","tag-matt-mclain","tag-mike-soroka","tag-mlb","tag-nick-lodolo","tag-odds","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"\nBetting Odds and Picks for Reds vs Cubs - 8\/04\/25 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs on August 4, 2025. 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