{"id":222156,"date":"2025-08-01T00:44:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T04:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-the-braves-vs-reds-best-bets-and-expert-picks-friday-august-01-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T23:52:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T03:52:02","slug":"check-out-the-braves-vs-reds-best-bets-and-expert-picks-friday-august-01-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-the-braves-vs-reds-best-bets-and-expert-picks-friday-august-01-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out the Braves vs Reds Best Bets and Expert Picks &#8211; Friday August 01, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/ATL.png\" alt=\"Atlanta Braves logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Atlanta Braves<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+120<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-115\/-105)<\/span><span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On August 1, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves in the second game of their series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, currently holding a record of 57-53, are having an above-average season, while the Braves sit at 46-62, struggling significantly. In their last matchup on July 31, the Reds fell to the Braves in a nail-biter, losing 12-11, illustrating the offensive firepower both teams can bring to the plate.<\/p>\n<p>Projected starters for this matchup are Brady Singer for the Reds and Bryce Elder for the Braves. Singer, despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has shown flashes of competence, going 8-8 with a 4.60 ERA this season. In his last start on July 27, he pitched well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings while striking out eight. However, his projections indicate he may allow around 3.0 earned runs today, which is concerning given his tendency to surrender a high number of hits\u2014averaging 5.4 per outing.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Elder is having a rough season, with a 4-7 record and a troubling 6.29 ERA. His last outing was disastrous, giving up eight earned runs in just three innings. While his 4.19 xFIP suggests he could improve, the current numbers raise doubts about his ability to handle the Reds&#8217; offense, which ranks 13th overall in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>The Reds are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their stronger record and recent offensive output. With an implied team total of 5.04 runs, they look poised to capitalize on Elder&#8217;s struggles, making them a strong pick for this game.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Atlanta Braves Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Atlanta Braves &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Bryce Elder has been unlucky this year, compiling a 6.29 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.80 \u2014 a 1.49 disparity.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Matt Olson &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 14.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Atlanta Braves batters jointly place 9th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Brady Singer &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Among all starting pitchers, Brady Singer&#8217;s fastball spin rate of 2421 rpm is in the 81st percentile this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Will Benson &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Will Benson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last season&#8217;s 93.4-mph average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Spencer Steer &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% \u2014 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball&#8217;s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+17.70 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.90 Units \/ 55% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Spencer Steer &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-200\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.35 Units \/ 16% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.3.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On August 1, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves in the second game of their series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, currently holding a record&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":222157,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10,283,286,287,289,288,284,499,15,285,728,73,282,281,124],"class_list":["post-222156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-bryce-elder","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-expert-picks","tag-michael-harris-ii","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-spencer-steer"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out the Braves vs Reds Best Bets and Expert Picks - Friday August 01, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds on August 1, 2025. 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