{"id":207163,"date":"2025-07-09T04:27:03","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T08:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/cubs-vs-twins-picks-and-odds-july-09-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-09T19:52:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T23:52:03","slug":"cubs-vs-twins-picks-and-odds-july-09-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/cubs-vs-twins-picks-and-odds-july-09-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Cubs vs Twins Picks and Odds &#8211; July 09, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CHC.png\" alt=\"Chicago Cubs logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIN.png\" alt=\"Minnesota Twins logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Minnesota Twins<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-110<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On July 9, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs at Target Field in what promises to be an electrifying interleague matchup. The Twins dropped yesterday&#8217;s game against the Cubs, and as they continue to struggle this season with a 44-47 record, they find themselves in a tough spot against the Cubs, who are thriving with a 54-37 record and rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB. <\/p>\n<p>The spotlight will be on the Twins&#8217; David Festa, projected to start for this game. Despite being ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher, Festa has had a rough season with a 5.48 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>. His advanced metrics suggest he could be better than his numbers indicate, but he\u2019s projected to struggle against a powerful Cubs lineup that has hit 137 home runs this year. Festa is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a team that excels in turning flyballs into home runs.<\/p>\n<p>Cade Horton will take the mound for the Cubs, and while he&#8217;s had a mixed season, his 4.15 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a> is above average. The projections suggest he could also face challenges, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and 4.8 hits per outing. However, the strength of the Cubs&#8217; offense, which also ranks 5th in batting average, gives them a significant edge.<\/p>\n<p>Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a highly competitive game. However, with the Twins\u2019 below-average offense ranked 20th in MLB and struggling to capitalize on opportunities, this matchup appears to favor the Cubs. The projections suggest that the Cubs should outperform their implied team total of 4.50 runs, making them the team to watch in this contest.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211;  Moneyline (-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Dansby Swanson &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Minnesota Twins Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>David Festa &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball batters, David Festa and his 34.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this game going up against 2 opposing FB batters.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Harrison Bader &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Harrison Bader has been hot recently, whalloping 4 long-balls in the last week&#8217;s worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Minnesota&#8217;s 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Minnesota Twins &#8211; Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.20 Units \/ 58% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+7.65 Units \/ 7% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Trevor Larnach &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610\/-1200)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+5.80 Units \/ 83% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On July 9, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs at Target Field in what promises to be an electrifying interleague matchup. The Twins dropped yesterday&#8217;s game against&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":207164,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,775,14,533,182,285,12,73,282,281],"class_list":["post-207163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-carlos-correa","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-dansby-swanson","tag-david-festa","tag-expert-picks","tag-minnesota-twins","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cubs vs Twins Picks and Odds - July 09, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins on July 9, 2025. 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