{"id":203307,"date":"2025-07-06T04:08:44","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T08:08:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-the-pirates-vs-mariners-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-06-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-06T17:07:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T21:07:03","slug":"check-out-the-pirates-vs-mariners-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-06-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-the-pirates-vs-mariners-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-06-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out the Pirates vs Mariners Best Bets and Expert Picks &#8211; Sunday July 06, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PIT.png\" alt=\"Pittsburgh Pirates logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SEA.png\" alt=\"Seattle Mariners logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Seattle Mariners<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-105<\/span><span>O\/U: 6<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-115<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On July 6, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of their interleague series at T-Mobile Park. This matchup comes on the heels of a tight contest on July 5, where the Mariners edged the Pirates 1-0, highlighting the struggles of Pittsburgh, who sits at 38-52 this season\u2014firmly in the midst of a disappointing campaign. The Mariners, meanwhile, have fared better, with a record of 47-42 and an above-average season, fueled by a solid offense ranked 13th in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>Starting for Seattle is George Kirby, the 32nd best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics. Despite a less-than-stellar 2-4 Win\/Loss record and an ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.85<\/a>, Kirby showed promise in his last start on June 30, pitching 6 innings and allowing just 1 earned run with 5 strikeouts. He projects to allow an average of only 1.9 earned runs today, making him a potential asset for the Mariners.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing Kirby is Paul Skenes, who has emerged as one of the league&#8217;s top pitchers, sitting at 2nd overall. With an impressive ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">2.03<\/a>, Skenes has been dominant, but his 4-7 record suggests he has faced some tough luck. He threw well in his last outing on July 1, tossing 5 scoreless innings, and the projections indicate he will continue to maintain his high standards in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p>The Mariners hold a low implied team total of 3.25 runs, pointing to a potentially close game. However, given Skenes&#8217;s tendency to induce high strikeout rates against the Mariners&#8217; striking-prone offense, he may be able to keep his team in the game. Overall, the Mariners&#8217; ability to capitalize on Skenes&#8217;s weaknesses will be crucial as they look to build on their recent victory and solidify their standing for the remainder of the season.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Paul Skenes &#8211; Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Paul Skenes&#8217;s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (97.5 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tommy Pham &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like George Kirby.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Seattle Mariners Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>George Kirby &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Given that flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball hitters, George Kirby and his 43.7% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today&#8217;s game going up against 3 opposing FB hitters.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Mitch Garver &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (+115\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cal Raleigh &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% \u2014 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league&#8217;s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+6.95 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+13.35 Units \/ 16% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>J.P. Crawford &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-170\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.25 Units \/ 32% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.3.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On July 6, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of their interleague series at T-Mobile Park. This matchup comes on the heels of&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":203308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,372,285,370,736,73,282,130,281,9,4,507],"class_list":["post-203307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-cal-raleigh","tag-expert-picks","tag-george-kirby","tag-luke-raley","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-paul-skenes","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-tommy-pham"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out the Pirates vs Mariners Best Bets and Expert Picks - Sunday July 06, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners on July 6, 2025. 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