{"id":196791,"date":"2025-07-01T03:28:02","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T07:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/explore-the-guardians-vs-cubs-matchup-preview-and-game-analysis-tuesday-july-1-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-01T23:59:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T03:59:03","slug":"explore-the-guardians-vs-cubs-matchup-preview-and-game-analysis-tuesday-july-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/explore-the-guardians-vs-cubs-matchup-preview-and-game-analysis-tuesday-july-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Explore the Guardians vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis &#8211; Tuesday, July 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CLE.png\" alt=\"Cleveland Guardians logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cleveland Guardians<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CHC.png\" alt=\"Chicago Cubs logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+170<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-200<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on July 1, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing outings. The Cubs, boasting a solid 49-35 record this season, are coming off a 2-0 loss to the New York Mets on June 29. Meanwhile, the Guardians, sitting at 40-42, suffered a more lopsided defeat, falling 7-0 to the Kansas City Royals in their last game.<\/p>\n<p>This interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and the Cubs are projected to send left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd has been impressive this season, with a 7-3 record and an excellent 2.65 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>. His strong performance is backed by advanced metrics, ranking him as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Additionally, he has been particularly effective in his last start, pitching six innings with no earned runs, three strikeouts, and only three hits allowed.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, the Guardians will counter with right-hander Gavin Williams, who holds a 5-3 record and a good 3.68 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>. However, his recent start was less than stellar, as he allowed three earned runs over five innings against the Royals. The projections indicate that Boyd is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings while giving up 2.2 earned runs, whereas Williams is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs in about 5.1 innings. <\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB with a powerful lineup that excels in both batting average and home runs, while the Guardians struggle at 25th overall. With the Cubs\u2019 potent offense facing a mediocre Guardians pitching staff, they hold a significant advantage. The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -190, suggesting they could surpass their projected team total of 4.89 runs, while the Guardians are up against a tough challenge with a low implied team total of 3.61 runs.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cleveland Guardians Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Gavin Williams &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Gavin Williams (42.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Chicago&#8217;s projected batting order.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Nolan Jones &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Nolan Jones has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.4% seasonal rate to 30% in the past week.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jose Ramirez &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% \u2014 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards baseball&#8217;s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Matthew Boyd &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Cleveland Guardians have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Dansby Swanson &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150\/-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Dansby Swanson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 86.7-mph in the last two weeks&#8217; worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211;  Moneyline (-200)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+9.45 Units \/ 15% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.60 Units \/ 52% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Lane Thomas &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units \/ 54% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.23.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on July 1, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing outings. The&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":196792,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,560,14,6,807,250,248,146,251,241,462,242,249,243,717,73,246,239,240,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-196791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-carson-kelly","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-gabriel-arias","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-gavin-williams","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-jose-ramirez","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-matthew-boyd","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Explore the Guardians vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis - Tuesday, July 1, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs on July 1, 2025. 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