{"id":193767,"date":"2025-06-28T01:35:04","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T05:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/dive-into-player-props-analysis-for-rays-vs-orioles-saturday-june-28-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-28T15:58:02","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T19:58:02","slug":"dive-into-player-props-analysis-for-rays-vs-orioles-saturday-june-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/dive-into-player-props-analysis-for-rays-vs-orioles-saturday-june-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Rays vs Orioles – Saturday June 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Tampa<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Baltimore<\/p>\n

Baltimore Orioles<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-105<\/span>O\/U: 9.5
(-115\/-105)<\/span>-115<\/span><\/div>\n

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2025. After a remarkable offensive display, the Orioles pulled off a stunning 22-8 victory over the Rays yesterday, marking a rare highlight in their challenging season. Despite that win, the Orioles’ record sits at 35-46, placing them under considerable pressure amid a disappointing campaign. Conversely, the Rays are thriving, boasting a record of 46-36 and positioning themselves as contenders in the American League East.<\/p>\n

Projected starters Zach Eflin and Zack Littell present an intriguing matchup. Eflin, who ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, is having a rough year with a 5.46 ERA<\/a>. However, his 4.23 xFIP indicates he might be due for a rebound, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky thus far. Meanwhile, Littell, while holding a decent 3.78 ERA<\/a>, has a 4.56 xERA that points to good fortune rather than skill, leaving open the possibility that he might regress. Both pitchers are right-handed and projected to pitch around five innings, making their performances critical to their teams’ chances.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Rays come in with the 9th best offense in MLB, highlighted by a stellar 2nd place team batting average. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense ranks 19th overall and 23rd in batting average, indicating a struggle to produce runs consistently. Betting markets have set the Game Total at 9.5 runs, which reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, with both teams given an implied team total of 4.75 runs. With the stakes high and both teams eyeing crucial wins, the matchup promises to be a compelling one for fans and bettors alike.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in the majors in this game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Jonathan Aranda – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Jonathan Aranda has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.3% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 7 days.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Yandy Diaz – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Baltimore Orioles Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Zach Eflin – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Zach Eflin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.9% compared to 62.7% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Gunnar Henderson – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 101.1-mph in the last week.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.23 Units \/ 14% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.0 (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.75 Units \/ 32% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Yandy Diaz – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units \/ 32% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2025. After a remarkable offensive… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":193768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[24,364,178,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,25,449,116,358],"class_list":["post-193767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-gunnar-henderson","tag-josh-lowe","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-yandy-diaz","tag-zach-eflin","tag-zack-littell"],"yoast_head":"\nDive Into Player Props Analysis for Rays vs Orioles - Saturday June 28, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup on June 28, 2025. 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