{"id":190539,"date":"2025-06-25T00:25:02","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T04:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/dive-into-the-head-to-head-preview-pirates-vs-brewers-matchup-june-25-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T14:12:03","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T18:12:03","slug":"dive-into-the-head-to-head-preview-pirates-vs-brewers-matchup-june-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/dive-into-the-head-to-head-preview-pirates-vs-brewers-matchup-june-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Pirates vs Brewers Matchup June 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Milwaukee<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 6.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 25, 2025, the stakes are high for the struggling Pirates, currently sitting at 32-49. Meanwhile, the Brewers, boasting a solid 44-36 record, are looking to build on their recent success after defeating the Pirates 9-3 in their last matchup on June 24.<\/p>\n

On the mound, the Brewers will send out Jacob Misiorowski, who has emerged as a promising right-handed pitcher this season. Despite being ranked just 126th among MLB starters, Misiorowski has maintained an impressive 1.64 ERA<\/a> and a perfect 2-0 record over his two starts. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Misiorowski projects to pitch around 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs while striking out about 5.5 batters.<\/p>\n

Facing him will be the elite Paul Skenes, ranked 2nd among MLB starters. Skenes, with a 1.85 ERA<\/a> and a 4-6 record, has started 16 games this year and is coming off a solid outing where he struck out 9 batters in 6 innings. He projects to pitch approximately 5.9 innings today, allowing 1.7 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters.<\/p>\n

The Brewers’ offense ranks 18th in MLB, while the Pirates’ offense finds itself in a dismal 29th position, particularly struggling with power as they sit last in home runs. With such a stark contrast in offensive capabilities, the Brewers appear poised to capitalize on Misiorowski\u2019s strengths against a high-strikeout Pirates lineup, enhancing their chances for victory despite the low implied team total of 3.25 runs. The Game Total for this matchup is set at a mere 6.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his secondary pitches 23% more often this year (55.4%) than he did last year (32.4%).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Adam Frazier – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Adam Frazier is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #24 overall.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Christian Yelich – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Christian Yelich has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jackson Chourio – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% \u2014 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.05 Units \/ 11% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Pittsburgh Pirates – Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+15.15 Units \/ 19% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Paul Skenes has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 25, 2025, the stakes are high for the struggling Pirates, currently sitting at 32-49. Meanwhile, the Brewers, boasting… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":190540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,185,250,248,251,241,155,242,249,243,22,73,130,9,246,239,240,253,245,252,335,244],"class_list":["post-190539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-christian-yelich","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-joey-bart","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-paul-skenes","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-william-contreras","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nDive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Pirates vs Brewers Matchup June 25, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers on June 25, 2025. 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