{"id":157714,"date":"2025-05-28T02:53:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T06:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/pirates-vs-d-backs-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-28-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-28T18:27:02","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T22:27:02","slug":"pirates-vs-d-backs-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/pirates-vs-d-backs-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Pirates vs D-Backs Value Bets and Betting Line &#8211; 5\/28\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PIT.png\" alt=\"Pittsburgh Pirates logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/ARI.png\" alt=\"Arizona Diamondbacks logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+115<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-135<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 28, 2025, in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 27-28, experiencing an average season, while the Pirates languish at 20-36, marking a dismal performance thus far. <\/p>\n<p>In their previous game, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 4th in MLB, by taking down the Pirates in a thrilling contest. Zac Gallen is projected to start for Arizona, bringing a solid pedigree as the 53rd best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, despite a challenging season with a 3-6 record and a <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">5.25<\/a> ERA. Gallen\u2019s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters, though he\u2019ll need to improve on his average of 5.4 hits allowed. <\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, Paul Skenes, projected as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh. With a 3-5 record and an impressive <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">2.36<\/a> ERA, Skenes is likely to be a tough challenge for the Diamondbacks. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing only 2.1 earned runs, but he may struggle against a high-powered Arizona offense that excels at making contact. <\/p>\n<p>Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Diamondbacks favored at -130, reflecting their better overall performance and offensive depth compared to the struggling Pirates. With the Diamondbacks&#8217; strong offensive metrics and Gallen&#8217;s potential for a bounce-back performance, they are well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Paul Skenes &#8211; Over\/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150\/-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Compared to the average starter, Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.7 adjusted pitches each outing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Oneil Cruz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Oneil Cruz is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates&#8217; bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Zac Gallen &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zac Gallen has relied on his curveball 5.9% less often this season (21.8%) than he did last year (27.7%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alek Thomas &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Pittsburgh&#8217;s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Alek Thomas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team&#8217;s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Josh Naylor &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% \u2014 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league&#8217;s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.10 Units \/ 29% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.20 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alexander Canario &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Alexander Canario has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 away games (+9.50 Units \/ 136% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.12.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 28, 2025, in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":157715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[464,564,20,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,123,73,282,130,281,9,407],"class_list":["post-157714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-adam-frazier","tag-alek-thomas","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-josh-naylor","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-paul-skenes","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-zac-gallen"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pirates vs D-Backs Value Bets and Betting Line - 5\/28\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on May 28, 2025. 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