{"id":15701,"date":"2024-07-22T01:02:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T05:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/see-the-cardinals-vs-pirates-matchup-preview-and-score-prediction-monday-july-22nd-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-22T18:53:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-22T22:53:02","slug":"see-the-cardinals-vs-pirates-matchup-preview-and-score-prediction-monday-july-22nd-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/see-the-cardinals-vs-pirates-matchup-preview-and-score-prediction-monday-july-22nd-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"See the Cardinals vs Pirates Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Monday July 22nd, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"St.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+100<\/span>O\/U: 8
(-115\/-105)<\/span>-120<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 22, 2024, at PNC Park, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Pirates, currently 50-49 and having an average season, face a Cardinals team that sits at 52-47, enjoying an above-average season. This is the first game of the series between these division rivals.<\/p>\n

The Pirates are coming off a rough outing, having been shut out 6-0 by the Philadelphia Phillies on July 21. Despite being slight underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +105, the Pirates couldn’t muster any offense. Mitch Keller, who has a solid 10-5 record with a 3.46<\/a> ERA, is set to start for Pittsburgh. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Keller’s last start was an abbreviated one, going just 3 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 3 walks.<\/p>\n

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are riding high after a 6-2 victory over the Atlanta Braves, where they were underdogs with a +120 Moneyline price. Andre Pallante will take the mound for St. Louis. Pallante has a 4-4 record and a 4.21<\/a> ERA, but his 3.63 xERA indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Pallante’s last start was decent, pitching 6 innings with 4 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 0 walks.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking 27th in MLB. Bryan Reynolds has been their standout performer with 18<\/a> home runs and a .288<\/a> batting average. In contrast, the Cardinals have a more balanced offense, ranking 17th overall, with Alec Burleson leading the way with 18<\/a> home runs and a .294<\/a> batting average.<\/p>\n

The Pirates’ bullpen stands at 12th in the Power Rankings, while the Cardinals’ bullpen is a solid 4th. This could play a crucial role in a game projected to be close, with the Pirates having a slight edge according to the betting markets. The Pirates’ current Moneyline is set at -125, implying a 53% win probability, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 51% win probability.<\/p>\n

Given the Pirates’ offensive struggles and Keller’s potential regression, this looks like a game that could tilt in favor of the Cardinals. However, with both teams closely matched, fans should expect a tightly contested game at PNC Park.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Andre Pallante – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Andre Pallante has a mean strikeout projection of 4 bats in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Nolan Gorman – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    St. Louis has performed as the #3 offense in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4\u00b0 and 26\u00b0, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (44.1% rate this year).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4\u00b0 and 26\u00b0 are far more likely to become base hits.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Mitch Keller – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Mitch Keller’s cutter utilization has decreased by 6.3% from last year to this one (24.3% to 18%) .<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-250\/+190)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a group grade out 9th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 8.6% Barrel%.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 60 games (+10.35 Units \/ 14% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.15 Units \/ 13% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Bryan Reynolds – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units \/ 28% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 22, 2024, at PNC Park, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Pirates,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[485,247,197,250,248,251,241,200,242,249,243,376,73,9,246,239,240,253,245,17,252,244],"class_list":["post-15701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-alec-burleson","tag-analysis","tag-andre-pallante","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-kebryan-hayes","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mitch-keller","tag-mlb","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nSee the Cardinals vs Pirates Matchup Preview and Score Prediction - Monday July 22nd, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on July 22, 2024. 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