{"id":149775,"date":"2025-05-21T06:08:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T10:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/explore-d-backs-vs-dodgers-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-5-21-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-21T23:42:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T03:42:03","slug":"explore-d-backs-vs-dodgers-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-5-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/explore-d-backs-vs-dodgers-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-5-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Explore D-Backs vs Dodgers Expert Picks and Betting Guide &#8211; 5\/21\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/ARI.png\" alt=\"Arizona Diamondbacks logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/LAD.png\" alt=\"Los Angeles Dodgers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+125<\/span><span>O\/U: 9.5<br \/>(+100\/-120)<\/span><span>-150<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 21, 2025, this matchup in the National League West holds significant importance, especially after the Dodgers edged out the D-Backs 4-3 in yesterday&#8217;s game. Both teams are vying for position, with the Dodgers currently holding a solid record of 30-19, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-23. <\/p>\n<p>The Dodgers are projected to send Dustin May to the mound, who has had an average year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1-4 record despite being the 75th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. May\u2019s numbers suggest he has been a bit unlucky, and he projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs today. However, his strikeout projection of 3.9 batters is concerning. <\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Corbin Burnes, who boasts a 2.56 ERA and a solid 3-1 record, will take the hill for the Diamondbacks. Burnes is ranked 35th among starting pitchers and is coming off a stellar performance where he pitched 6 innings, allowing no earned runs. He projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, which is less efficient than his usual output.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Dodgers lead the league with the 1st best batting average and 2nd in home runs, while the Diamondbacks are not far behind, ranking 3rd in MLB for offensive performance. However, given the Dodgers&#8217; strong lineup against Burnes \u2014 a pitcher known for high walk rates \u2014 they could capitalize on Burnes&#8217;s control issues, enhancing their chances of scoring runs.<\/p>\n<p>With a game total set at 9.5 runs and the Dodgers favored at -140, the team holds an implied total of 5.07 runs, indicating confidence in their potent offense. As the Dodgers look to continue their winning ways, they aim to solidify their place atop the division against a competitive Diamondbacks squad.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks &#8211;  Moneyline (+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pavin Smith &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Pavin Smith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today&#8217;s game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.329 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .341 wOBA this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality.  If today&#8217;s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren&#8217;t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Los Angeles Dodgers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium \u2014 the #4 HR venue in MLB \u2014 in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Freddie Freeman &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Los Angeles Dodgers bats as a unit rank 4th- in baseball for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.65 Units \/ 13% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.55 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Eugenio Suarez &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+110\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.10 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.22.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 21, 2025, this matchup in the National League West holds significant importance, especially after the Dodgers edged&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":149776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,830,285,393,8,73,282,747,281],"class_list":["post-149775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-dustin-may","tag-expert-picks","tag-freddie-freeman","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-pavin-smith","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Explore D-Backs vs Dodgers Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 5\/21\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers on May 21, 2025. 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