{"id":129641,"date":"2025-05-03T00:47:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-03T04:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/rays-vs-yankees-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-03-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-03T23:58:02","modified_gmt":"2025-05-04T03:58:02","slug":"rays-vs-yankees-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-03-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/rays-vs-yankees-value-bets-and-betting-line-5-03-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line &#8211; 5\/03\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/TB.png\" alt=\"Tampa Bay Rays logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/NYY.png\" alt=\"New York Yankees logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>New York Yankees<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+180<\/span><span>O\/U: 10<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-210<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Yankees currently sit at 19-13, showing promise this season, while the Rays struggle at 14-18. The Yankees are projected to start Ryan Yarbrough, who has yet to start a game this season, making eight appearances out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays, holding a 1-5 record and a 5.03 ERA.<\/p>\n<p>In their latest meeting on May 2, the Yankees secured a convincing 3-0 victory, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Yankees have a remarkable 54 home runs this season, which is tied to their ranking as the 2nd best team in batting average. The Rays, on the other hand, rank 23rd in home runs and 19th in overall offensive performance, highlighting their struggles at the plate.<\/p>\n<p>Yarbrough&#8217;s projections suggest he will pitch an average of 4.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. Given his high 4.89 FIP, this indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season compared to his performance metrics. Littell, while averaging 5.3 innings pitched, is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and has a better strikeout rate than Yarbrough, which may play in his favor against a Yankees lineup that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>The Yankees come into this game as significant favorites, with a moneyline of -210. Their offense&#8217;s depth against Littell&#8217;s flyball tendencies could favor New York, especially given that Littell is prone to giving up home runs. As both teams look to improve their standings, the Yankees will aim to maintain their momentum, while the Rays desperately seek a turnaround.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tampa Bay Rays &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Christopher Morel &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Christopher Morel has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that&#8217;s always far from assured (28.2% K%).  Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Yarbrough has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) \u2014 great news for Morel.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> If he is less likely to strikeout, he&#8217;ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Danny Jansen &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% \u2014 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball&#8217;s 9th-deepest LF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">New York Yankees Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ryan Yarbrough &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Given his large platoon split, Ryan Yarbrough faces a tough challenge matching up with 7 batters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in this outing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ben Rice &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Ben Rice has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year&#8217;s 90-mph EV.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .330, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .355 this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality.  If today&#8217;s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren&#8217;t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.52 Units \/ 40% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units \/ 63% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yandy Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Runs (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.75 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.12.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Yankees currently sit at 19-13, showing promise this season,&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":129642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,756,92,285,73,13,282,281,25,732,358],"class_list":["post-129641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-clarke-schmidt","tag-danny-jansen","tag-expert-picks","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-travis-jankowski","tag-zack-littell"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rays vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line - 5\/03\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees on May 3, 2025. 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