{"id":123281,"date":"2025-04-27T06:10:03","date_gmt":"2025-04-27T10:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/phillies-vs-cubs-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-april-27-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-27T19:17:03","modified_gmt":"2025-04-27T23:17:03","slug":"phillies-vs-cubs-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-april-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/phillies-vs-cubs-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-april-27-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies vs Cubs Best Bets and Expert Picks &#8211; Sunday April 27, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PHI.png\" alt=\"Philadelphia Phillies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CHC.png\" alt=\"Chicago Cubs logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+110<\/span><span>O\/U: 8<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-130<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field on April 27, 2025, in a critical National League matchup. Both teams took the field yesterday, with the Cubs suffering a 10-4 defeat, while the Phillies celebrated a decisive win by the same score. This game marks the third of the series, and both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form to gain an edge in the highly competitive NL.<\/p>\n<p>The Cubs, sporting a 17-11 record, have been performing exceptionally well this season, highlighted by their 2nd-best offense in MLB. They rank 2nd in team batting average and have displayed power with 38 home runs this season. However, they face Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher for the Phillies, who, despite a disappointing 0-5 record, has shown signs of potential with a 3.36 xFIP that suggests he may be due for a turnaround.<\/p>\n<p>Jameson Taillon, projected to pitch for the Cubs, has been average thus far with a 1-1 record and a 4.73 ERA. His last outing was solid, going 5 innings with only 1 earned run. Taillon&#8217;s control is an asset, as he has a low walk rate of 6.3%, which could play a crucial role against a Phillies offense known for drawing walks.<\/p>\n<p>For the Cubs, the projections favor them with an implied team total of 4.10 runs. Their offensive prowess and Taillon&#8217;s ability to limit walks could create a favorable scenario, particularly against a Phillies bullpen ranked 28th in the league. As the Cubs aim to rebound from their last game, they\u2019ll look to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on the Phillies&#8217; pitching struggles.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Aaron Nola &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Aaron Nola&#8217;s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (92.5 mph).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Bryce Harper &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Bryce Harper has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  Moneyline (+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Michael Busch &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Michael Busch&#8217;s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 80.6-mph over the past week.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Chicago Cubs batters as a group place 9th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 9.6% Barrel%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.75 Units \/ 33% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alec Bohm &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units \/ 72% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.3.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field on April 27, 2025, in a critical National League matchup. Both teams took the field yesterday, with the Cubs suffering&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":123282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[291,283,286,287,289,288,284,14,285,114,73,447,282,484,32,281],"class_list":["post-123281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-aaron-nola","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-expert-picks","tag-jameson-taillon","tag-mlb","tag-nick-castellanos","tag-odds","tag-pete-crow-armstrong","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Phillies vs Cubs Best Bets and Expert Picks - Sunday April 27, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs on April 27, 2025. 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