{"id":122160,"date":"2025-04-26T03:00:03","date_gmt":"2025-04-26T07:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/phillies-vs-cubs-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-4-26-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-26T16:31:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T20:31:02","slug":"phillies-vs-cubs-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-4-26-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/phillies-vs-cubs-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-4-26-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Guide &#8211; 4\/26\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PHI.png\" alt=\"Philadelphia Phillies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CHC.png\" alt=\"Chicago Cubs logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-115<\/span><span>O\/U: 7<br \/>(+100\/-120)<\/span><span>-105<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies gear up for their matchup on April 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams come off notable results from their previous game. The Cubs celebrated a decisive 4-0 shutout victory over the Phillies just a day prior, while the Phillies faced the same fate, struggling to find a rhythm against their opponents.<\/p>\n<p>In the current standings, the Cubs hold a strong record of 17-10, showcasing their prowess, especially with their offense ranked 1st in MLB, which includes leading rankings in both team batting average and stolen bases. This potent offense will face a tougher challenge against the Phillies\u2019 pitching ace, Jesus Luzardo, who boasts an impressive 2.08 ERA and a favorable 5-0 record this season. However, Luzardo\u2019s projections suggest he may regress slightly, given his elevated xFIP of 2.80, hinting at a possible vulnerability.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, the Cubs project to start Ben Brown, who, despite a solid showing in his first few starts, is recognized for his high walk rate of 12.4%, which could play into the hands of the Phillies\u2019 patient hitters. The Phillies rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks, posing a threat if Brown struggles with his control.<\/p>\n<p>With both teams looking to establish their offensive rhythm after a mixed bag in their prior game, expectations are set for a tightly contested battle. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs reflects the perceived strength of both pitchers, although the Cubs&#8217; lineup, having performed so well this season, certainly holds the edge in this pairing. The projections suggest a potential for the Cubs to overcome their low implied team total of 3.50 runs, as their offensive capabilities may shine through against Brown\u2019s control issues.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jesus Luzardo is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Johan Rojas &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  Moneyline (-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order profiles as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ben Brown &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Ben Brown has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62.9% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Justin Turner &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Justin Turner has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks&#8217; worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 9.7% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs grades them out as the #10 club in baseball this year by this stat.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.95 Units \/ 52% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211; Over\/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units \/ 37% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Nick Castellanos &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Runs (+155\/-205)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units \/ 41% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.22.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies gear up for their matchup on April 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams come off notable results from their previous game.&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":122161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[809,283,286,287,289,288,284,14,285,125,119,431,73,282,32,281],"class_list":["post-122160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-ben-brown","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-expert-picks","tag-jesus-luzardo","tag-johan-rojas","tag-justin-turner","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Phillies vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 4\/26\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs on April 26, 2025. 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