{"id":119058,"date":"2025-04-23T02:37:02","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T06:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/phillies-vs-mets-picks-and-betting-trends-4-23-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T19:14:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T23:14:02","slug":"phillies-vs-mets-picks-and-betting-trends-4-23-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/phillies-vs-mets-picks-and-betting-trends-4-23-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies vs Mets Picks and Betting Trends &#8211; 4\/23\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PHI.png\" alt=\"Philadelphia Phillies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/NYM.png\" alt=\"New York Mets logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-120<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(+100\/-120)<\/span><span>+100<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 23, 2025, in what is the third game of their series. The Mets, currently leading the matchup with a solid record of 17-7, are enjoying a strong season. In contrast, the Phillies sit at 13-11, marking an above-average start, yet they need to gain traction to keep pace in the National League East.<\/p>\n<p>In their previous game, the Mets secured a victory, continuing their good form. David Peterson is slated to take the mound for New York. Although he&#8217;s ranked as the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Peterson has shown promise with a 3.27 ERA and a projected average of 5.5 innings pitched. However, his expected metrics suggest he has been slightly unlucky this season, potentially pointing to better performance ahead.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Zack Wheeler, projected to start for Philadelphia, is among the elite, ranked 5th in the league. With a solid 2-1 record and a 3.73 ERA, Wheeler is expected to perform well, as he averages 5.7 innings and has a high strikeout rate of 33.6%. However, his projections indicate he might also be due for some positive regression.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Mets rank 19th in MLB, while the Phillies boast the 5th best offense. This series features a significant contrast in offensive capabilities, with Philadelphia&#8217;s lineup being more potent, especially in on-base scenarios. The Game Total currently sits at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest.<\/p>\n<p>Betting lines favor the Phillies slightly, with a moneyline of -120 against the Mets at +100. The projections lean toward a competitive game, making it a captivating matchup for bettors and fans alike.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Zack Wheeler &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zack Wheeler&#8217;s 2430-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all SPs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Johan Rojas &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies&#8217; bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>David Peterson &#8211; Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">David Peterson has averaged 17.2 outs per GS since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Brandon Nimmo &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Brandon Nimmo has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last week.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Mark Vientos &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% \u2014 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball&#8217;s shallowest CF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>New York Mets &#8211; Moneyline (+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.55 Units \/ 32% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alec Bohm &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units \/ 93% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.7.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 23, 2025, in what is the third game of their series. The Mets, currently leading the matchup with a&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,305,304,285,119,73,33,282,513,32,281,118],"class_list":["post-119058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-brandon-nimmo","tag-david-peterson","tag-expert-picks","tag-johan-rojas","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-odds","tag-pete-alonso","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks","tag-zack-wheeler"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Phillies vs Mets Picks and Betting Trends - 4\/23\/2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets on April 23, 2025. 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