{"id":115935,"date":"2025-04-20T00:34:02","date_gmt":"2025-04-20T04:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/reds-vs-orioles-match-preview-and-winning-probability-sunday-april-20-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-20T23:47:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-21T03:47:02","slug":"reds-vs-orioles-match-preview-and-winning-probability-sunday-april-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/reds-vs-orioles-match-preview-and-winning-probability-sunday-april-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Reds vs Orioles Match Preview and Winning Probability &#8211; Sunday April 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/BAL.png\" alt=\"Baltimore Orioles logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Baltimore Orioles<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+170<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-200<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On April 20, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Cincinnati Reds in an interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are looking to build on a recent win, having defeated the Reds 9-5 in their last game on April 19. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles holding a record of 9-11 and the Reds at 10-11, positioning them in the lower tier of the standings.<\/p>\n<p>The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Charlie Morton for the Orioles and Randy Wynne for the Reds. Morton is having a rough start to his season, with an 0-4 record and an alarming ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">8.84<\/a>. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he has been unlucky, indicated by his xFIP of 4.98, which suggests he might fare better going forward. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, projecting to strike out 6.6 batters but also allowing a concerning 4.7 hits per game.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, Randy Wynne has also faced challenges this season, projected to pitch only 4.0 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs with a strikeout rate of 2.3 batters. The Reds&#8217; offense ranks 22nd overall in MLB, which could play to the Orioles&#8217; advantage if Morton can capitalize on the matchup.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Orioles rank 10th in the league, boasting a powerful lineup that has produced the 6th most home runs. Their best hitter is on a hot streak, having posted a 1.333 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Reds&#8217; best hitter has struggled recently with a batting average of just .588 during the same timeframe.<\/p>\n<p>With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Orioles as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -195, this matchup offers an intriguing opportunity for bettors as the projections favor Baltimore&#8217;s chances to outperform their implied team total of 5.21 runs.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Elly De La Cruz &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">This season, Elly De La Cruz has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.7 mph compared to last year&#8217;s 94 mph mark.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds&#8217; bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Baltimore Orioles Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Charlie Morton &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Charlie Morton&#8217;s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (44.8 compared to 38.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jackson Holliday &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Bats such as Jackson Holliday with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Randy Wynne who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ryan Mountcastle &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards MLB&#8217;s shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211; Moneyline (+170)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 away games (+0.70 Units \/ 1% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jackson Holliday &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Runs (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Jackson Holliday has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units \/ 30% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.12.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On April 20, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Cincinnati Reds in an interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are looking to build on a&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":115936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,24,453,422,15,250,248,251,846,241,607,242,249,243,73,246,239,240,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-115935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-carson-spiers","tag-charlie-morton","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-heston-kjerstad","tag-insights","tag-jackson-holliday","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reds vs Orioles Match Preview and Winning Probability - Sunday April 20, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles on April 20, 2025. 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