{"id":114848,"date":"2025-04-19T03:16:02","date_gmt":"2025-04-19T07:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-reds-vs-orioles-4-19-25\/"},"modified":"2025-04-19T23:44:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-20T03:44:02","slug":"check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-reds-vs-orioles-4-19-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-reds-vs-orioles-4-19-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Reds vs Orioles &#8211; 4\/19\/25"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/BAL.png\" alt=\"Baltimore Orioles logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Baltimore Orioles<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+110<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-130<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Cincinnati Reds visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 19, 2025, the stakes are high for the Baltimore Orioles, who are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-3 loss to the Reds just a day prior. The Orioles, currently sitting at 8-11, are struggling this season, while the Reds hold a slightly better record at 10-10, indicating an average start to their campaign.<\/p>\n<p>On the mound, the Orioles are set to start Brandon Young, who has been projected to pitch 4.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, which reflects a below-average performance. Young ranks as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he may have a tough time against the Reds&#8217; lineup. In contrast, Hunter Greene, projected to start for Cincinnati, has been exceptional this season with a 0.98 ERA and a ranking of 25th among starting pitchers. Greene&#8217;s ability to limit walks could play a crucial role against an Orioles offense that ranks 5th in the league for least walks.<\/p>\n<p>Despite their recent struggles, the Orioles&#8217; offense has shown some power, ranking 8th in MLB for home runs. In this matchup, they will need to capitalize on Greene&#8217;s occasional vulnerability to hits, as he projects to allow 4.8 hits on average today. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors might see this as an opportunity for a high-scoring affair.<\/p>\n<p>The advanced projections suggest that the Orioles could have an edge given Greene\u2019s high strikeout rate and the Orioles\u2019 low-walk offense. This matchup is pivotal for Baltimore as they seek to turn their season around and secure a much-needed victory against a competitive Reds team.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Hunter Greene &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Hunter Greene has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.6% less often this season (39.2%) than he did last season (44.8%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>TJ Friedl &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.1) suggests that TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 20.0 actual HR\/600.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jeimer Candelario &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% \u2014 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards the league&#8217;s shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Baltimore Orioles Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jordan Westburg &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-185\/+140)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Baltimore Orioles &#8211;  Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 3rd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.15 Units \/ 29% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jackson Holliday &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850\/-2200)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units \/ 225% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.14.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Cincinnati Reds visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 19, 2025, the stakes are high for the Baltimore Orioles, who are looking to bounce back after a&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[24,283,286,287,289,288,284,315,15,285,64,66,73,282,281,65],"class_list":["post-114848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-cedric-mullins","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-expert-picks","tag-hunter-greene","tag-jeimer-candelario","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tj-friedl"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Reds vs Orioles - 4\/19\/25 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles on April 19, 2025. 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