{"id":112754,"date":"2025-04-17T01:59:02","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T05:59:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/expert-player-predictions-for-giants-vs-phillies-thursday-april-17-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-17T16:13:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T20:13:02","slug":"expert-player-predictions-for-giants-vs-phillies-thursday-april-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/expert-player-predictions-for-giants-vs-phillies-thursday-april-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Player Predictions for Giants vs Phillies &#8211; Thursday, April 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SF.png\" alt=\"San Francisco Giants logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>San Francisco Giants<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PHI.png\" alt=\"Philadelphia Phillies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+170<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>-200<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants on April 17, 2025, they find themselves in a critical matchup after a tough loss yesterday, where they fell 11-4 to the Giants. With both teams showcasing strong records\u2014Philadelphia at 10-8 and San Francisco at 13-5\u2014this game is pivotal in the early season standings.<\/p>\n<p>Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, bringing a solid profile as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He has shown promise with a 1-0 record and a great ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">3.12<\/a>. However, his 4.12 FIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate, suggesting a potential regression in performance. Sanchez&#8217;s high strikeout rate of 26.0% could play a significant role against the Giants, who have struggled with strikeouts this season, ranking 6th in the league.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, Jordan Hicks is projected to start for the Giants. Although he has a decent 1-1 record, his ERA is concerning at <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">5.87<\/a>, and he was hit hard in his last outing, giving up 7 earned runs over just 4 innings. Despite this, projections suggest he may perform better than his ERA indicates, thanks to an xFIP of 4.17.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Giants boast a stronger lineup, ranking 8th in MLB, while the Phillies sit at 11th. However, Philadelphia&#8217;s offense has the potential to capitalize on Hicks\u2019s struggles, especially given their implied team total of 4.64 runs for this game.<\/p>\n<p>With a high stakes atmosphere, the Phillies are favored to win, and they will look to bounce back from yesterday&#8217;s defeat and leverage their home-field advantage in this crucial series matchup.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">San Francisco Giants Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jordan Hicks &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jordan Hicks&#8217;s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (69.5 compared to 55.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Willy Adames &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Willy Adames has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year&#8217;s 93.6-mph average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e.  over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Sam Huff, Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Fitzgerald).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cristopher Sanchez &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Among all starting pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez&#8217;s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph is in the 84th percentile this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Johan Rojas &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies&#8217; bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211; Run Line -1.5 (+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 80 games at home (+1.30 Units \/ 1% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alec Bohm &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units \/ 39% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.15.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants on April 17, 2025, they find themselves in a critical matchup after a tough loss yesterday, where they fell 11-4 to&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[548,215,165,73,32,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,27,763],"class_list":["post-112754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bryce-harper","tag-cristopher-sanchez","tag-jordan-hicks","tag-mlb","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-willy-adames"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expert Player Predictions for Giants vs Phillies - Thursday, April 17, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup on April 17, 2025. 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