{"id":10968,"date":"2024-07-14T06:26:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-14T10:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/match-preview-braves-vs-padres-game-forecast-and-analysis-sunday-july-14-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-14T16:12:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-14T20:12:02","slug":"match-preview-braves-vs-padres-game-forecast-and-analysis-sunday-july-14-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/match-preview-braves-vs-padres-game-forecast-and-analysis-sunday-july-14-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Match Preview: Braves vs Padres Game Forecast and Analysis – Sunday, July 14, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Atlanta<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"San<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-165<\/span>O\/U: 7
(-115\/-105)<\/span>+145<\/span><\/div>\n

On July 14, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres are looking to continue their momentum after shutting out the Braves 4-0 yesterday, improving their season record to 50-48. The Padres are having an average season, while the Braves, holding a 52-42 record, are enjoying a good season.<\/p>\n

Randy Vasquez will take the mound for the Padres. The right-hander has been one of MLB\u2019s worst starting pitchers, ranked 283rd out of approximately 350 pitchers in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a respectable 4.66<\/a> ERA over 12 starts, his 6.31 xERA suggests that luck has been on his side, and worse performances could be on the horizon. Vasquez sports a 2-4 win\/loss record and is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.1 innings today.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, who is ranked 5th among starting pitchers. Sale has been elite this season with a 12-3 record and a stellar 2.74<\/a> ERA. His 2.21 FIP indicates that he\u2019s been somewhat unlucky and might improve even further. Sale is projected to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.8 innings.<\/p>\n

Offensively, San Diego holds a slight edge. The Padres rank 11th in MLB overall and 2nd in team batting average. The Braves, while 14th overall, struggle with a 18th-ranked team batting average and are near the bottom in stolen bases at 28th.<\/p>\n

The Padres’ bullpen is 13th, which is average, while the Braves’ bullpen ranks 6th, which is good. This bullpen advantage gives Atlanta an edge in late-game situations. However, low walks could play into the Braves’ hands since Vasquez throws many strikes.<\/p>\n

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves have a 57% win probability for today\u2019s game compared to their 60% implied win probability. This slight discrepancy suggests there may be value in considering the Padres, projected at a 43% win probability but with a moneyline implying just 40%.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Chris Sale – Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The San Diego Padres have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale today, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Marcell Ozuna – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last year’s 96.5-mph EV.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Today\u2019s version of the Braves projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .321 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .333 overall projected rate.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    San Diego Padres Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Xander Bogaerts – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts’s true offensive ability to be a .329, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .069 difference between that mark and his actual .260 wOBA.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      San Diego Padres batters collectively grade out 26th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 6.9% Barrel%.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.50 Units \/ 37% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 79 games (+28.40 Units \/ 32% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Xander Bogaerts – Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800\/-2000)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games at home (+21.00 Units \/ 124% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        On July 14, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres are looking to continue their… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10969,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,10,168,250,248,251,241,292,242,249,243,73,246,239,240,21,253,245,252,244,488],"class_list":["post-10968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-chris-sale","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-marcell-ozuna","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability","tag-xander-bogaerts"],"yoast_head":"\nMatch Preview: Braves vs Padres Game Forecast and Analysis - Sunday, July 14, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres on July 14, 2024. 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