{"id":10940,"date":"2024-07-14T05:52:03","date_gmt":"2024-07-14T09:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-blue-jays-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-tips-sunday-july-14th-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-14T16:07:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-14T20:07:02","slug":"check-out-blue-jays-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-tips-sunday-july-14th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-blue-jays-vs-d-backs-picks-and-betting-tips-sunday-july-14th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out Blue Jays vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Tips – Sunday July 14th, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Toronto<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+135<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-120\/+100)<\/span>-155<\/span><\/div>\n

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays square off in the final game of their series on July 14, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, who currently hold a 49-47 record, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, with a 43-52 record, are struggling this year. Arizona’s recent form has been encouraging; they demolished Toronto 12-1 yesterday, and they’re looking to carry that momentum into today’s contest.<\/p>\n

Zac Gallen takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Ranked as the #14 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gallen has been a reliable ace this season. With a 6-5 record and a 3.33<\/a> ERA, Gallen’s numbers are impressive, although his 4.08 xERA suggests he might have been slightly fortunate. In his last start on July 9, Gallen had an uneventful outing, pitching 5 innings with 4 earned runs. Today, he projects to go 6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.9 batters.<\/p>\n

The Blue Jays will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who ranks as the #84 starting pitcher in MLB. Kikuchi holds a 4-8 record and a 4.00<\/a> ERA, but his 3.26 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. In his last start, Kikuchi shone, pitching 7 innings with 2 earned runs and a remarkable 13 strikeouts. Today, he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.1 innings, with 5 strikeouts.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the edge. They rank 9th in MLB, with strong batting averages and decent power. Their standout player, Christian Walker, has been a consistent force, batting .264<\/a> with 22<\/a> home runs and an .843 OPS. Over the last week, Eugenio Suarez has been on a tear, blasting 4 home runs with a 1.203 OPS.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 23rd and has struggled with power and consistency. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains their best hitter, posting a .284<\/a> average and 13<\/a> home runs, but he hasn’t been able to lift the team out of their offensive slump.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 60% win probability, making them a solid favorite. Given their recent form, superior pitching, and more potent offense, Arizona looks poised to secure a series sweep against Toronto.<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Yusei Kikuchi – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Yusei Kikuchi’s curveball rate has spiked by 5.8% from last year to this one (19.3% to 25.1%) .<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Daulton Varsho – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In the last two weeks, Daulton Varsho’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 4th-worst) in regard to their 88-mph average exit velocity.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Zac Gallen – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Zac Gallen\u2019s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94.6 mph) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (92.8 mph).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jake McCarthy – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jake McCarthy’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 88.5-mph average last season has decreased to 85.5-mph.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Ketel Marte – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Ketel Marte projects as the 20th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.65 Units \/ 48% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Toronto Blue Jays – Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+8.80 Units \/ 8% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Eugenio Suarez – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays square off in the final game of their series on July 14, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, who currently hold a… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,145,92,285,51,73,282,281,31,135,407],"class_list":["post-10940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-corbin-carroll","tag-danny-jansen","tag-expert-picks","tag-jake-mccarthy","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-toronto-blue-jays","tag-yusei-kikuchi","tag-zac-gallen"],"yoast_head":"\nCheck Out Blue Jays vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Tips - Sunday July 14th, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on July 14, 2024. 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