New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
(-115/-105)-110
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to clash on July 28, 2024, at Fenway Park in an American League East matchup. The Yankees are currently having a strong season with a 61-45 record, while the Red Sox have an above-average season at 55-48. This game is the third in their series, and the Yankees triumphed with an 11-8 win over the Red Sox yesterday.
On the mound, the Red Sox will start Tanner Houck, who has been stellar this season with an 8-6 record and a sparkling 2.71 ERA. Houck’s 3.25 xFIP suggests he’s been slightly lucky this year and might regress. However, his low walk rate (5.7 BB%) and high groundball rate (55 GB%) could give him an edge against the power-hitting Yankees lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 149 home runs.
The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who is 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. Rodon’s peripheral stats indicate he’s been unlucky, as his 3.82 SIERA suggests he should perform better going forward. Rodon’s last start was impressive, logging seven innings with one earned run and 10 strikeouts. This performance could be a sign of positive momentum.
Offensively, the Yankees have been dominant, ranking 2nd in overall offensive power and featuring Aaron Judge, who boasts a .314 batting average and a 1.131 OPS. The Red Sox, though not as powerful, still hold their own, ranked 4th in overall offense with contributions from Jarren Duran, who has a .293 batting average and a .862 OPS.
Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Red Sox bullpen is ranked 26th, posing a significant challenge if their starter can’t go deep. Conversely, the Yankees’ bullpen ranks 19th.
According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees have a slight edge with a 53% win probability compared to the Red Sox’s 47%. Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a tightly contested game. With both teams projected to score high, this matchup promises to be an exciting showdown at Fenway Park.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-110)Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- New York Yankees batters as a unit place in the game for power this year when using their 10.6% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Tanner Houck (50.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in New York’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 13 games at home (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)