New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)-110
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the New York Yankees on April 17, 2025, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive American League East. The Rays, currently sitting at 8-10, are struggling this season, while the Yankees boast a strong 11-7 record. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the stakes are high for the Rays, who are eager to turn their season around.
In their last outing, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, racking up runs and extending their winning streak. The Yankees’ offense ranks 1st in MLB, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs, as they lead the league with 33 long balls. In contrast, the Rays, despite having the 6th best offense in MLB, have been inconsistent, particularly in converting scoring opportunities.
On the mound, the Rays will start Taj Bradley, who has been solid this season with a 2-0 record and a 3.71 ERA. His 3.16 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better. However, facing a powerful Yankees lineup, Bradley’s tendency to allow fly balls (43% FB rate) might be a concern, especially given the Yankees’ home run capabilities.
The Yankees will counter with Will Warren, who has struggled, posting a 5.14 ERA. Although his 3.73 xFIP indicates he might improve, his performance thus far has not instilled confidence. The projections suggest that both pitchers will allow around 2.6 earned runs today, but Bradley’s strikeout potential (6.4 strikeouts projected) gives him the edge.
With the Rays’ moneyline set at -120 and an implied team total of 4.61 runs, they are favored to win a close contest. However, the Yankees, with their high-octane offense and current form, will pose a significant challenge as they aim to capitalize on any mistakes made by Bradley. This matchup promises to be an exciting start to the series, as both teams look to assert their dominance in the division.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)Given that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Will Warren (45.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Ben Rice has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last year’s 90-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees batters jointly grade out in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 10.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Taj Bradley has utilized his cut-fastball 5.6% more often this year (28.1%) than he did last season (22.5%).Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Will Warren.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)Taylor Walls has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 92% ROI)