Yankees vs Rangers Preview and Prediction – Wednesday September 4th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees prepare to face off on September 4, 2024, this matchup is crucial for both teams, though their trajectories this season couldn’t be more different. The Rangers currently sit at 66-73, struggling in the midst of a below-average year, while the Yankees boast a strong record of 80-59, standing tall in the playoff race. In their last outing, the Yankees secured a significant victory, further solidifying their standing in the American League.

In this pivotal series, Nathan Eovaldi is slated to take the mound for the Rangers. Eovaldi, regarded as a solid pitcher—ranked 57th in Power Rankings—has been a reliable arm with a 10-7 record and a commendable 3.60 ERA this season. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. Notably, Eovaldi’s high groundball rate of 50% could prove advantageous against the Yankees’ power-laden lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 149 home runs.

On the opposing side, Marcus Stroman, with his 10-6 record and 3.81 ERA, faces scrutiny as he ranks as a below-average pitcher. Projections indicate he may struggle, especially given his elevated xFIP of 4.63, suggesting an impending decline in performance. Stroman is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings but will need to counter a potent Rangers offense that, despite ranking 23rd overall, is not without talent.

While betting markets have set an intriguing moneyline of -110 for both teams, implying a close contest, the Yankees’ superior lineup and their recent form could tip the scales in their favor as they continue to chase postseason glory.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Marcus Stroman’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (62.4% vs. 45.4% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, posting a .476 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .427 — a .049 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Jonah Heim has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games at home (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 105 games (+22.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 46 games (+20.70 Units / 30% ROI)