Yankees vs Guardians Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 10/18/2024

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees on October 18, 2024, for Game 4 of this American League League Championship matchup, both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. The Yankees hold a slight edge with a 51% implied win probability, but the Guardians, with their 49% chance, are not far behind. The Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, faces off against the Guardians’ average hitting lineup, which is 17th in the league. However, the Guardians have been impressive in the power department, ranking 11th in home runs.

Gavin Williams, the Guardians’ right-handed starter, enters with a 3-10 record and a 4.86 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could show improvement. Williams faces a Yankees lineup known for patience, leading the league in drawing walks. Meanwhile, the Yankees counter with Luis Gil, whose 15-7 record and 3.50 ERA highlight his success this season. However, his 4.36 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate and may not sustain this level of performance.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Yankees ranked 6th and the Guardians 7th. The Yankees’ offense is bolstered by their power, ranking 2nd in home runs, while the Guardians’ strength lies in their speed, ranking 5th in stolen bases. Brayan Rocchio has been a bright spot for the Guardians recently, hitting .467 with a 1.133 OPS over the last week.

As the series progresses, the Guardians will look to capitalize on Gil’s potential regression, while the Yankees aim to exploit Williams’ control issues. With both teams having strong bullpens and the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a close contest at Progressive Field.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Luis Gil meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+14.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 112 games (+19.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)