Yankees vs Cubs Picks and Betting Trends – 9/08/2024

New York Yankees

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 8, 2024, both teams come into this crucial interleague matchup with contrasting seasons. The Cubs currently sit at 72-70, reflecting an average performance, while the Yankees boast an impressive 82-60 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league.

In their last encounter on September 7, the Cubs were shut out by the Yankees, falling 2-0. With Jameson Taillon slated to take the mound for the Cubs, he faces a challenging task against a potent Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in MLB. Taillon, who has a 3.66 ERA this season, is projected to struggle against a team known for its power, particularly with his high flyball rate of 36%. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ ace, is expected to continue his strong performance, coming off a solid outing where he allowed just one earned run in six innings.

While the projections favor the Yankees significantly, there may be some hope for the Cubs. Their offense ranks 14th overall and has shown flashes of productivity, particularly with Ian Happ leading the charge. Furthermore, the Cubs’ bullpen is rated 16th, suggesting that they can hold their own in late-game situations.

THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score 4.03 runs on average, while the Yankees are expected to put up a robust 5.36. This game not only offers a chance for the Cubs to avenge their recent loss but also provides an opportunity for bettors to assess the value in taking a chance on an underdog facing a great opponent.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Gerrit Cole has averaged 92.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Despite posting a .470 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has had positive variance on his side given the .046 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .424.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup ranks as the best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary pitches a lot this year: 59.6% of the time, placing in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs bats jointly place 7th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 94 games (+22.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 30% ROI)