Yankees vs Athletics Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/22/2024

New York Yankees

@

Oakland Athletics

As the New York Yankees and the Oakland Athletics prepare for the third game of their series on September 22, 2024, the Yankees find themselves in a commanding position with a 91-64 record, while the Athletics have stumbled through a lackluster season at 67-88. Despite the Athletics’ struggles, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly better chance at winning (41%) than the betting odds suggest (38%).

In their last outing, the Yankees dominated the Athletics with a 10-0 victory, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks 1st in home runs and 3rd overall in MLB. The Athletics, on the other hand, have shown flashes of power with the 7th-best home run total, but their overall offensive output has been inconsistent, ranking 18th.

On the mound, Oakland’s Joey Estes faces a tough task against the Yankees’ potent lineup. Estes, ranked 227th among starting pitchers, has had a challenging season with a 4.78 ERA, though his 4.26 xERA suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky. His high flyball rate could spell trouble against a Yankees team that leads MLB in home runs. In his last start, Estes struggled significantly, allowing six earned runs in just one inning.

Luis Gil takes the mound for the Yankees, boasting a solid 3.14 ERA, though his 4.29 xFIP indicates potential overperformance. Gil’s high strikeout rate could exploit an Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

With the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Gil’s pitching prowess, New York enters as the favorite. However, if the Athletics can capitalize on any mistakes by Gil and Estes can limit the Yankees’ long ball, they might just pull off an upset at the Oakland Coliseum.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Gil has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Gleyber Torres has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joey Estes has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Shea Langeliers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 108.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 95.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 away games (+14.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)