Yankees vs Athletics Match Preview and Winning Probability – Sunday May 11, 2025

New York Yankees

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Athletics

As the New York Yankees visit Sutter Health Park to face the Oakland Athletics on May 11, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this American League matchup. The Yankees enter the game with a 22-17 record, contending for a Wild Card spot, while the Athletics, at 21-19, are enjoying an above-average season. In their previous encounter yesterday, the Athletics triumphed over the Yankees 11-7, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Luis Severino is set to take the mound for the Athletics, aiming to improve on his recent form. Despite a 1-3 record this season, Severino has a solid ERA of 3.62, though advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky thus far. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs, and he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.3 per game. However, he faces a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in the league, known for its ability to punish pitchers.

On the other side, Ryan Yarbrough is expected to start for the Yankees. His ERA of 3.72 this season indicates he has had his moments, but he has also struggled with consistency. Yarbrough projects for just 4.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which may not be enough against the Athletics’ offense that ranks 11th overall and 6th in batting average.

The projections favor the Athletics with an implied team total of 5.13 runs, suggesting they could continue their scoring surge from yesterday. Given the recent performances and the matchup at hand, this game offers a compelling narrative for bettors, especially with the Yankees needing to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat.

New York Yankees Insights

• Ryan Yarbrough – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Among all starters, Ryan Yarbrough’s fastball spin rate of 1885.4 rpm is in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Ben Rice has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last season’s 90-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Aaron Judge hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  JJ Bleday is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Athletics have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Nicholas Kurtz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)