Winning Probability and Team Stats for Phillies vs Marlins Match – Monday June 16, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 16, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup. The stakes are notable, as the Marlins currently sit at 28-41, struggling through a rough season, while the Phillies boast a strong 42-29 record. In their last game on June 15, the Marlins secured a victory over the New York Mets, winning 3-1. Meanwhile, the Phillies come off an impressive 11-4 win against the Atlanta Braves.

Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for Miami. Despite being ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he faces challenges this season, holding a 3-7 record and an alarming 7.14 ERA. His recent outing was encouraging, as he pitched six innings of shutout ball on June 10, but his overall performance suggests he has been unlucky. The projections indicate he might allow 2.7 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other hand, Mick Abel is set to start for Philadelphia. Although he has a 1-0 record and an impressive 2.35 ERA this season, his performance metrics raise some concerns. With a 3.53 xFIP, the projections suggest he may not sustain his current level of success. Abel’s last outing saw him struggle, allowing three earned runs in just four innings.

The Marlins rank 19th in offense, with a particularly weak home run total, while the Phillies rank 7th overall. The Game Total for today is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a competitive contest. Betting markets see this as a closely contested game, with the Marlins having an average implied team total of 4.20 runs compared to the Phillies’ higher 4.30 runs. Given the current dynamics, the Phillies are positioned as slight favorites, but Alcantara’s potential resurgence could tilt the balance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Mick Abel is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Philadelphia’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  With a 3.15 discrepancy between Sandy Alcantara’s 7.14 ERA and his 3.99 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and figures to see better results in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bats such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mick Abel who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 54 games (+11.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.40 Units / 285% ROI)