Winning Probability and Team Stats for Phillies vs Marlins Match – Monday June 16, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 16, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup. The stakes are notable, as the Marlins currently sit at 28-41, struggling through a rough season, while the Phillies boast a strong 42-29 record. In their last game on June 15, the Marlins secured a victory over the New York Mets, winning 3-1. Meanwhile, the Phillies come off an impressive 11-4 win against the Atlanta Braves.

Sandy Alcantara is projected to take the mound for Miami. Despite being ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he faces challenges this season, holding a 3-7 record and an alarming 7.14 ERA. His recent outing was encouraging, as he pitched six innings of shutout ball on June 10, but his overall performance suggests he has been unlucky. The projections indicate he might allow 2.7 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other hand, Mick Abel is set to start for Philadelphia. Although he has a 1-0 record and an impressive 2.35 ERA this season, his performance metrics raise some concerns. With a 3.53 xFIP, the projections suggest he may not sustain his current level of success. Abel’s last outing saw him struggle, allowing three earned runs in just four innings.

The Marlins rank 19th in offense, with a particularly weak home run total, while the Phillies rank 7th overall. The Game Total for today is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a competitive contest. Betting markets see this as a closely contested game, with the Marlins having an average implied team total of 4.20 runs compared to the Phillies’ higher 4.30 runs. Given the current dynamics, the Phillies are positioned as slight favorites, but Alcantara’s potential resurgence could tilt the balance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• The Miami Marlins project for the 4th-most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 54 games (+11.55 Units / 13% ROI)