Winning Probability and Team Stats for Phillies vs Braves Match – Tuesday August 20, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Atlanta Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are set to clash in an important National League East matchup on August 20, 2024, at Truist Park. Both teams are in the thick of a competitive season, with the Braves holding a record of 66-58, and the Phillies at 73-51. The Braves are coming off a win against the Angels on August 18, 2024, while the Phillies suffered a loss to the Nationals in their last outing.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Reynaldo Lopez, who has been solid this season with a 2.06 ERA, albeit with a 3.88 xFIP suggesting he may have benefited from some good fortune. Lopez has an average projection, expected to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs. Conversely, the Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler, a 10th-ranked pitcher in MLB with a stellar 2.72 ERA. Wheeler is expected to pitch about 5.8 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs, which indicates he could be a key asset for Philadelphia in this matchup.

Offensively, the Phillies boast a 6th-best ranking in MLB, thanks in part to Kyle Schwarber leading the charge with 28 home runs and a .858 OPS. The Braves, while averaging in the middle of the pack overall, rank 10th in home runs, suggesting they have the potential to put runs on the board, particularly with Marcell Ozuna’s impressive season. However, their struggles with stolen bases—ranking 28th—could limit their scoring opportunities.

With the stakes high and both teams eyeing a successful series opener, the projections favor the Phillies to score 5.34 runs on average, while the Braves are projected for 4.17 runs. The game total is set at an average of 8.0 runs, and with the Braves currently listed as underdogs at +125, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest between two playoff contenders.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball spin rate of 2427 rpm is in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) may lead us to conclude that Trea Turner has experienced some positive variance this year with his .311 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Reynaldo Lopez is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Sean Murphy is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 115 games (+24.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 112 games (+10.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)
  Whit Merrifield has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)