Winning Probability and Team Stats for Mets vs Blue Jays Match – Wednesday September 11, 2024

New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the New York Mets face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 11, 2024, both teams are looking to gain an edge in a closely contested series. The Mets are currently positioned above average in the standings with a record of 79-66, while the Blue Jays, at 69-77, have had a lackluster season. This matchup is particularly crucial for the Mets as they aim to solidify their postseason positioning.

Yesterday, the Blue Jays pulled off a solid victory against the Mets, winning 6-2, a game in which they showcased their offensive prowess. Bowden Francis, projected to start for Toronto, has had a decent year with a 3.72 ERA, though his underlying metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky thus far. The advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 137th best starter in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. In his last outing, Francis pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 6 batters.

On the other side of the mound, Sean Manaea is slated to start for the Mets. With a strong 3.43 ERA and an impressive ability to miss bats—seen in his last start where he struck out 9 batters—Manaea ranks 85th in MLB. While both pitchers project to pitch around 5.1 innings, Manaea has the upper hand based on performance metrics.

Offensively, the Mets boast the 9th best lineup in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs with 182 this season, ranking 5th overall. The Blue Jays, however, struggle significantly in this department, sitting at 22nd in home runs and 27th in stolen bases. Given these discrepancies, the Mets may leverage their power against Francis, who is known for allowing fly balls.

Despite the odds favoring the Mets, the leading MLB projection system suggests a close game, with the Blue Jays projected to score an average of 4.55 runs, giving them a potential edge to surprise following their recent victory.

New York Mets Insights

• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  J.D. Martinez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, J.D. Martinez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball hitters have a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Bowden Francis and his 40.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position today facing 0 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+14.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Daulton Varsho has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games at home (+10.20 Units / 57% ROI)