Winning Probability and Team Stats for Giants vs Reds Match – Saturday August 03, 2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Cincinnati Reds

On August 3, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the San Francisco Giants in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup at Great American Ball Park. The Reds enter the game with a disappointing record of 52-56, struggling to find any rhythm this season. In their last game, Cincinnati faced off against the Giants, who are slightly ahead in the standings at 54-56. Despite their recent struggles, Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, ranked as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is slated to take the mound. Greene boasts an impressive 2.97 ERA this season, but his 4.23 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Kyle Harrison. The left-handed pitcher has had a rocky season, holding a 3.69 ERA but also exhibiting below-average performance metrics. Harrison projects to pitch only 4.8 innings on average, which could put pressure on a Giants bullpen that, despite being ranked 1st in MLB, may have to cover more than they would like.

Cincinnati’s offense ranks 18th in MLB, with a particularly abysmal 27th in batting average, yet they compensate somewhat with a 1st ranking in stolen bases. Santiago Espinal has been the standout performer over the last week, boasting a .571 batting average and an OPS of 1.571. Meanwhile, the Giants rank 13th in offense but are struggling to hit for power, sitting 23rd in home runs.

The Reds find themselves as the betting favorites in this contest, with an implied team total of 4.81 runs. Given the disparities in pitching and the Reds’ need to capitalize on this rare favorable matchup, they will aim to turn their season around against a Giants team that is equally searching for consistency.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  In his previous outing, Kyle Harrison was rolling and accumulated 11 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Over the past two weeks, LaMonte Wade Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 97 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+105/-135)
  Hunter Greene has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)