Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Tigers Match - Saturday April 04, 2026

+140O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-160

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
Considering the 0.91 gap between Dustin May’s 5.21 ERA and his 4.30 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game since the start of last season and ought to see positive regression the rest of the season.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
This year, there has been a decline in Nolan Gorman’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 23.28 ft/sec currently.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
In his previous GS, Jack Flaherty didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.
Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.247) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .289 actual wOBA.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Detroit Tigers bats collectively place 7th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 9.5% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 33% ROI)

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