Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Rangers Match – Sunday June 01, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on June 1, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position, holding a record of 28-31 this season. In contrast, the Cardinals are positioned much better at 33-25, showcasing their strength as they vie for playoff contention. This matchup marks the third game in their series and is particularly critical for the Rangers, who are looking to turn the tide after a disappointing stretch.

In their last game, the Rangers fell short against the Cardinals, and now they are hoping for a bounce-back performance at Globe Life Field. They will rely heavily on Jacob deGrom, who has been exceptional this season with a 4-2 record and a stellar 2.42 ERA, ranking him as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, he has shown signs of potential regression with a xFIP of 3.36, indicating some luck in his current performance.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has struggled to find his rhythm, holding a 3-4 record with a 3.90 ERA. Although Fedde’s ERA looks decent, his xFIP of 4.91 suggests that he might be due for some challenges against a Rangers offense that ranks 30th in MLB. The projections indicate that he will likely pitch nearly six innings, but with a tendency to walk hitters and face a Rangers lineup that has been patient at the plate, the Cardinals might find themselves in a favorable position.

Given that the Rangers’ offense has been underwhelming, ranking 30th in runs scored, the Cardinals’ potent lineup, which ranks 7th in the league, has the potential to exploit any mistakes made by deGrom. With the Rangers being sizable betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, their chances at victory hinge on deGrom’s ability to maintain his elite status against a Cardinals team looking to make a statement.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to league average, Erick Fedde has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jacob deGrom has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.81 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.53 — a 1.72 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Marcus Semien is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+16.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+15.05 Units / 40% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Josh Jung has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 30% ROI)