Winning Probability and Team Stats for Blue Jays vs Guardians Match – Wednesday June 25, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cleveland Guardians

On June 25, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field for the second game of their series. The Guardians, currently standing at 39-38, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays are performing above average at 42-36. In their last matchup, the Guardians fell short against the Blue Jays, losing 10-6, which may have added a bit of pressure as they look to bounce back in this game.

Cleveland will send out Gavin Williams, who has been a solid performer with a 5-3 record and a respectable ERA of 3.58. However, advanced projections indicate that he could be in for a tougher outing, as his 4.13 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck this season. Williams has also been effective in his last start, pitching six innings with no earned runs, which could bolster his confidence heading into this matchup.

On the other side, Max Scherzer takes the mound for Toronto, but his 6.00 ERA this season raises concerns, especially considering his last abbreviated start, where he allowed two earned runs in just three innings. The projections hint that Scherzer might struggle, as his 11.07 FIP indicates he has not been as effective as his ERA suggests.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 25th in MLB, struggling to produce runs despite having a decent batting average. In contrast, the Blue Jays boast the 2nd best batting average in the league, which highlights a significant advantage in this matchup. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive contest. With the Guardians having the slight edge in the moneyline at -125, bettors might find value in Cleveland’s potential to turn their recent loss into a victory.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a sizeable edge over flyball hitters, Gavin Williams and his 42.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Gabriel Arias has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 97.1-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.0 (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+12.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 75% ROI)