Winning Probability and Team Stats for Astros vs Angels Match – Sunday September 15, 2024

Houston Astros

@

Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels, struggling with a record of 60-87, face off against the Houston Astros, who sit at 79-68, in a crucial matchup on September 15, 2024, at Angel Stadium. With the Angels positioned 4th in the American League West and the Astros in a competitive race for a Wild Card spot, this game carries significant implications for both teams. The Astros recently showcased their abilities with a dominant performance in their last game, which they won decisively.

On the mound, the Angels will send out Caden Dana, projected to start despite his rough season showing a 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 9.00. Dana’s advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky, as indicated by his 6.27 xFIP, hinting at potential improvement. However, he’s not facing a forgiving opponent. The Astros boast the 8th best offense in MLB, and their current form makes this confrontation even more daunting.

In contrast, Ronel Blanco will take the hill for Houston, carrying a solid 10-6 record and an impressive 2.99 ERA. Despite projections indicating he could face a decline, Blanco’s ability to navigate the Angels’ anemic offense, which ranks 27th in the league, should give him an upper hand. Furthermore, the Angels’ batters have struggled significantly, with a low batting average that amplifies their problems.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Angels may outperform expectations in this contest, with an average projected team total of 4.50 runs, compared to an implied total of just 3.75. Bettors may find value in the Angels as underdogs, particularly considering their recent offensive surge from Nolan Schanuel, who has been their best hitter over the last week. While the Astros remain the favorites, the matchup presents intriguing dynamics worth monitoring.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his last 3 starts, Ronel Blanco has seen a sizeable increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2232 rpm over the whole season to 2294 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 76.7-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (-105)
  Caden Dana is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Nolan Schanuel has had some very good luck this year. His 13.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 9.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordyn Adams, Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas, Logan O’Hoppe, Jack Lopez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 54% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-130)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 112 games (+16.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Jason Heyward has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+7.15 Units / 8% ROI)