Winning Probability and Team Stats for Angels vs Twins Match – Tuesday September 10, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to take on the Los Angeles Angels on September 10, 2024, both teams are coming off a notable matchup just a day prior, where the Angels triumphed over the Twins with a decisive 6-2 victory. The Twins currently hold a record of 76-68, putting them in a strong position as they look to bounce back, while the Angels are struggling at 60-84, finding themselves well out of contention.

In this American League clash, the Twins are projected to start Pablo Lopez, who ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite status. Lopez has been relatively unlucky this season with a 4.05 ERA but boasts a stronger 3.29 xFIP, suggesting he has the potential for better performance. He’s projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs while striking out 7.3 batters on average. In contrast, the Angels will counter with Griffin Canning, who has had a rough season with a 5.02 ERA and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league, making this matchup particularly favorable for the Twins.

The projections indicate that Minnesota has a very high implied team total of 4.83 runs, while Los Angeles is projected to score a mere 3.17 runs. With the Twins’ offense ranking 11th in MLB and showing signs of strength, they should be positioned well to capitalize on Canning’s struggles. Additionally, Minnesota’s best hitter, Willi Castro, continues to perform, having played in 142 games this season.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bryce Teodosio, Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas, Logan O’Hoppe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Compared to the average hurler, Pablo Lopez has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Matt Wallner has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last season’s 97.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 away games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.80 Units / 40% ROI)