Winning Probability and Match Preview for Twins vs Red Sox – 9/20/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox

As the Minnesota Twins head to Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox on September 20, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Twins, sitting at 80-73, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a 76-77 record, are having an average season but have been eliminated from winning their division.

Both teams come into this matchup after close losses. The Red Sox fell 2-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays, despite a commendable pitching effort, while the Twins had a narrow 3-2 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. The pitching matchup features Richard Fitts for the Red Sox and David Festa for the Twins. Fitts, despite a sparkling 0.00 ERA, has shown signs of luck given his high xFIP of 5.67. Festa, on the other hand, has been plagued by a 5.07 ERA, although his xFIP of 3.57 suggests better days ahead.

Offensively, Boston holds an edge, boasting the 7th-best lineup in MLB, supported by strong rankings in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Jarren Duran has been a standout, and Trevor Story has been hot, with a .350 average and a 1.031 OPS over the last week. Minnesota’s lineup is not far behind, ranked 10th overall, with Willi Castro leading the charge.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 52% win probability, suggesting potential value in backing Boston. With both teams fielding right-handed pitchers, expect a tightly contested game, with Boston’s offense potentially tipping the scales in their favor.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Over his last 3 GS, David Festa has seen a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2335 rpm over the entire season to 2392 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Richard Fitts has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Tyler O’Neill has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 17.9% seasonal rate to 37.5% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)