Winning Probability and Match Preview for Twins vs Red Sox – 9/20/2024

Minnesota Twins

@

Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on September 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in different situations. The Red Sox, sitting at 76-77, are having an average season and are not currently in playoff contention, while the Twins, at 80-73, are enjoying an above-average season and remain in the hunt for a postseason spot. This American League matchup marks the first game of the series between these two teams.

The pitching duel features two right-handers: Richard Fitts for the Red Sox and David Festa for the Twins. Fitts has a sparkling 0.00 ERA in his two starts this season, but his peripheral stats suggest he’s been lucky, with a 5.68 xFIP indicating potential regression. Festa, on the other hand, has a 5.07 ERA over 12 starts, but his 3.57 xFIP suggests he’s been on the wrong side of luck and could improve.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast the 7th-best lineup in baseball, with rankings inside the top 10 in batting average and home runs. Trevor Story has been their standout performer over the last week, hitting .350 with two homers and three stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense ranks 10th, with Carlos Correa shining recently, sporting a .385 average and four RBIs over his last four games.

The Red Sox have a slight edge according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which gives them a 57% chance of victory, suggesting value in betting on Boston. Additionally, their bullpen ranks 13th, outperforming the Twins’ 22nd-ranked relief corps. With a close matchup expected, both teams are projected to score over four runs, making for an exciting night at Fenway.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his last 3 GS, David Festa has seen a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2335 rpm over the entire season to 2392 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Carlos Correa’s true offensive skill to be a .344, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .042 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .386 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Richard Fitts has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Triston Casas is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)