Winning Probability and Match Preview for Twins vs Giants – 7/13/2024

Minnesota Twins

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins square off again on July 13, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants look to continue their momentum after a decisive 7-1 victory over the Twins yesterday, a game in which they were underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +125. The Giants’ win was a notable upset, as the Twins entered the game as favorites.

Despite their below-average season record of 46-49, the Giants have shown flashes of potential, particularly in their bullpen, which is ranked 1st according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This elite bullpen could play a crucial role today, especially with right-hander Hayden Birdsong on the mound. Birdsong, who has an ERA of 4.40###101, has been somewhat fortunate this year, as indicated by his 4.91 xERA. However, his projections suggest he could hold his own, with an expected 5.1 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Twins, boasting a solid 53-41 record, have had a strong season thanks to their high-powered offense, which ranks 5th in MLB. They will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, another right-hander, who sports a 3.48 ERA. However, his 4.44 xFIP suggests he has also been a bit lucky. Woods Richard’s projections are less favorable, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed.

The Giants’ offense, ranking 13th in team batting average but struggling in power categories like home runs (20th) and stolen bases (30th), will need to capitalize on any chances against Woods Richard. Meanwhile, the Twins, with a top-tier offense ranking 4th in batting average and 5th in home runs, could exploit Birdsong’s high-flyball tendencies.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are projected as big favorites with a 60% win probability, suggesting value in betting on San Francisco. With betting markets giving the Giants a 55% implied win probability, there may be an edge for bettors siding with the home team today.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Simeon Woods Richardson’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.3% this year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ryan Jeffers’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.6-mph seasonal average has decreased to 79.1-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.305 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+150/-195)
  Hayden Birdsong’s 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 90th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)