Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rockies vs Padres – 8/03/2024

Colorado Rockies

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 3, 2024, they find themselves in a critical matchup in the National League West. The Padres are currently 59-52, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rockies struggle at 41-70, marking one of the worst records in baseball. This is the second game of their series, with Colorado claiming victory in yesterday’s contest by a score of 5-2, a disappointing outcome for San Diego given their status as heavy favorites.

The projections heavily favor the Padres in this encounter, with their offense ranked 1st in MLB in batting average and 10th in home runs. San Diego is set to start Martin Perez, a left-handed pitcher with a challenging season record of 2-5 and an ERA of 5.20. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate he could perform better based on his xFIP of 4.64, suggesting he has faced some bad luck this year. Perez’s recent outing was encouraging, as he pitched six innings with no earned runs against the Rockies on July 24.

On the mound for Colorado will be Tanner Gordon, who carries an alarming 8.80 ERA and a winless record of 0-3. His last start saw him allow four earned runs over six innings, further exacerbating his struggles in the rotation. Given that both pitchers rank among the lower echelons in MLB, this contest could hinge on which offense can capitalize on the other’s mistakes.

With a current moneyline of -220, the Padres are favored to win, and the projections suggest they will score around 5.04 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 4.00 runs. With a strong showing from their lineup, the Padres will aim to bounce back and secure a much-needed win at Petco Park.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+175)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In comparison to his 90.8-mph average last year, Ryan McMahon’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Sam Hilliard hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Martin Perez will wring up 16.8 outs in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  When it comes to his batting average, David Peralta has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .253 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .293.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Martin Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+175)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 74 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+17.90 Units / 128% ROI)