Winning Probability and Match Preview for Phillies vs Rockies – 5/21/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Colorado Rockies

The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Colorado Rockies on May 21, 2025, at Coors Field in what has become a challenging series for the Rockies. After losing to the Phillies by a score of 7-4 in their last game, the Rockies find themselves struggling with an abysmal record of 8-40 this season, ranking as the 28th worst offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Phillies are enjoying a solid season with a record of 30-18, sitting among the top teams in the league.

The matchup features Carson Palmquist starting for the Rockies, who has had a rough season with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 11.25. Palmquist’s last outing on May 16, where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4 innings, highlights his struggles on the mound. The projections indicate he may allow 3.4 earned runs today, further raising concerns about his ability to keep the game competitive.

On the other hand, Taijuan Walker is slated to pitch for the Phillies. Walker has been effective this season, showcasing an impressive ERA of 2.62. While he has had some luck, the projections suggest he may allow 3.0 earned runs today, which could still be enough to secure a win against a struggling Rockies offense.

The Rockies’ best hitter has been in decent form recently, recording a .471 batting average over the past week, but the overall team performance remains lackluster. With the Rockies ranked 28th in both team batting average and runs scored, they are in a tough position against a Phillies lineup that ranks 5th in MLB.

As the Rockies look to improve their standing, they face a daunting challenge against a Phillies team that is favored to win, underscored by their strong offensive capabilities and better pitching performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Taijuan Walker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Hitters such as Johan Rojas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carson Palmquist who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Carson Palmquist – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because of his large platoon split, Carson Palmquist will not have the upper hand going up against 7 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan McMahon has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (29.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn’t generate many whiffs (10th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Colorado Rockies hitters jointly grade out 21st- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 92.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-195)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+220/-300)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+6.40 Units / 160% ROI)