Winning Probability and Match Preview for Orioles vs Yankees – 9/26/2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on September 26, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum as the season heads into its final stretch. The Yankees, boasting a strong 91-68 record, are firmly in contention for a playoff spot, while the Orioles sit at 75-84, having had a disappointing season. In their last matchup, the Yankees edged out the Orioles with a 5-3 victory, but the Orioles recently snapped a losing streak by winning 6-5 in their previous game.

On the mound, the Yankees are set to start Will Warren, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average season with a 4.35 ERA and an 8-8 win-loss record over 32 starts. However, his peripherals suggest he may struggle against an improving Orioles lineup. Conversely, the Orioles will counter with Trevor Rogers, a lefty who has been exceptional this season. With a 1.35 ERA and a solid win-loss record of 9-2 across 17 starts, Rogers has demonstrated significant control with a low walk rate, making him a tough opponent for the Yankees’ patient hitters.

The Yankees’ offense ranks 1st in MLB, leading in home runs and showcasing their ability to score runs. Their best hitter has been on fire lately, boasting a .381 batting average over the past week and contributing significantly to the team’s run production. In contrast, the Orioles rank 21st in MLB offensively, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, particularly against a pitcher of Rogers’ caliber.

With the Yankees being favored at -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, this matchup presents a classic battle of a potent offense against a solid pitcher. It will be interesting to see if the Yankees can exploit any weaknesses in Rogers’ game, especially given the projections that indicate a challenging outing for Warren.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Trevor Rogers has relied on his four-seamer 8.9% more often this season (40.6%) than he did last season (31.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Coby Mayo pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Will Warren’s fastball spin rate of 2572 rpm grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Yankees have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Slater, Austin Wells, Jose Caballero, Giancarlo Stanton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 47 games (+18.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+25.58 Units / 15% ROI)
• Will Warren – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120/-150)
  Will Warren has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)