Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
(-105/-115)-145
On September 26, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium in a pivotal American League East matchup. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season with a record of 91-68, while the Orioles sit at 75-84, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Yankees showcased their power by hitting multiple home runs, further solidifying their status as the 1st best offense in MLB.
Projected starters for this contest are Will Warren for the Yankees and Trevor Rogers for the Orioles. Will Warren, despite being ranked the 125th best starting pitcher, has had an average season with an ERA of 4.35 and a Win/Loss record of 8-8. Warren’s projections indicate he is likely to allow around 2.4 earned runs while striking out a modest 5.4 batters over an expected 5.0 innings pitched, which is concerning given his tendency to allow 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks on average.
In contrast, Trevor Rogers has been a bright spot for the Orioles, currently ranking 60th among MLB starters with an impressive ERA of 1.35 and a record of 9-2. Although projections suggest he may allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.8 innings, his control is strong, which could neutralize the Yankees’ high-walk offense, ranked 1st in the league.
The Yankees’ lineup is potent, ranking 1st in home runs and 9th in batting average, while the Orioles’ offense lags behind, ranked 21st overall. Given the Yankees’ offensive strength and Rogers’ potential vulnerabilities, New York is positioned as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -145, indicating high expectations for their scoring output of approximately 4.58 runs. As the two teams clash, it will be intriguing to see if the Yankees can capitalize on their power against Rogers and maintain their edge in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Trevor Rogers has relied on his four-seamer 8.9% more often this season (40.6%) than he did last season (31.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under Total BasesRyan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Out of all starting pitchers, Will Warren’s fastball spin rate of 2572 rpm grades out in the 98th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-145)The New York Yankees projected lineup projects as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.