New York Mets
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-105
On July 13, 2025, the Kansas City Royals host the New York Mets at Kauffman Stadium in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Royals are currently sitting at 46-50, clearly struggling this season, whereas the Mets stand at a solid 55-41, riding high on recent success. In their last encounter, the Mets edged past the Royals with a 3-1 victory, adding to Kansas City’s woes.
The pitching matchup features Royals’ Noah Cameron, a lefty with a 2.56 ERA, projected to face the right-handed Clay Holmes, who has a strong 3.29 ERA. Cameron has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 4.12 xFIP, which suggests he may not maintain his current level of performance. Meanwhile, Holmes is coming off a rough outing, having allowed five earned runs in his last start. The projections indicate he may struggle against the Royals’ low-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd least in the league.
While the Royals have a reputation for a weak offense, ranking 26th overall in MLB, their best hitter has recently found a rhythm, recording a remarkable 0.429 batting average with a 1.526 OPS over the last week. Kansas City’s low home run numbers may be minimized against a groundball pitcher like Holmes, which could play into their favor. Conversely, the Mets possess a potent lineup, particularly in home runs, ranking 8th overall.
With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs and Kansas City’s moneyline currently at -105, bettors may find value backing the Royals, especially if their offense can capitalize on Holmes’s control issues. The stage is set for what could be a closely contested battle.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Sean Manaea’s 2013-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 1st percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)Luis Torrens has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Today, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.4% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Noah Cameron – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Generating 17.3 outs per game per started this year on average, Noah Cameron checks in at the 83rd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Kansas City Royals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 84 games (+32.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.80 Units / 53% ROI)