Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Giants – 9/27/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants gear up to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. With the Giants holding a 79-80 record and the Cardinals sitting at 81-78, this National League matchup at Oracle Park might not have playoff implications but promises to be a closely contested affair.

Landen Roupp, a right-handed pitcher for the Giants, is set to make his fourth start of the season. Despite primarily serving in a bullpen role, Roupp has impressed with a 2.70 ERA, placing him 81st in MLB starting pitcher Power Rankings, indicating he’s been above average. However, his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Roupp is projected to allow just 2.0 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings, although his projected strikeout numbers (4.3) leave something to be desired.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Miles Mikolas. Despite a rough season reflected by his 5.35 ERA, Mikolas’ xFIP of 4.06 suggests he’s been unlucky and might be due for some improvement. He’s expected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. His projections also anticipate a below-average strikeout tally of 4.3.

Offensively, the Giants and Cardinals have struggled. San Francisco ranks 19th in overall offense, with their batting average lagging at 20th, though they manage a middling 16th in home runs. The Cardinals rank 20th overall, with a better showing at 13th in batting average but a lackluster 22nd in homers.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Giants as the slight favorite with a 60% win probability, suggesting there might be value in backing them at their current moneyline of -130. With a strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, the Giants could have the edge in what is projected to be a tightly contested game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mikolas to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ivan Herrera has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 95-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Landen Roupp has been lucky this year, notching a 2.70 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.12 — a 1.42 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Fitzgerald’s true offensive ability to be a .294, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .067 gap between that figure and his actual .361 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 18 away games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)