Winning Probability and Match Preview for Braves vs Giants – 6/06/2025

Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on June 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Giants are currently 35-28, showcasing a solid season, while the Braves sit at 27-34, struggling to find consistent success. The stakes feel higher for Atlanta, as they look to reverse their fortunes in this crucial National League matchup.

In their previous game, the Braves managed to snap a losing streak with a win, but they still have not found their rhythm overall this season. On the other hand, San Francisco’s offense has been lackluster, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. This is a significant concern given that they will be facing one of the league’s top pitchers in Spencer Schwellenbach, who boasts an impressive 3.13 ERA and is projected to pitch nearly six innings today, allowing just 2.3 earned runs on average.

Conversely, Hayden Birdsong is slated to start for the Giants. While Birdsong has had a decent individual season with a 2.37 ERA, he is ranked 177th among starting pitchers, indicating that he is not among the elite. His projections today suggest he may struggle, likely pitching around 4.6 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs with a concerning average of 4.4 hits allowed.

With San Francisco’s bullpen rated as the best in MLB and the Braves’ bullpen ranked 20th, the Giants may have an edge in late-game situations. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the anticipated struggles of both offenses. While betting markets lean slightly towards the Braves, the Giants’ strong bullpen and a good outing from Birdsong could provide the spark they need to pull off a close victory.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-140)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #28 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.4-mph mark last year has lowered to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)