Winning Probability and Match Preview for Athletics vs Dodgers – 5/14/2025

Athletics

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on May 14, 2025, they do so after an impressive victory in the first game of this interleague series, and they sit at a strong 27-15 on the season. The Dodgers, currently boasting the 2nd best offense in Major League Baseball, are led by their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has emerged as one of the league’s elite pitchers, ranking 4th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Yamamoto’s performance this season has been stellar, with an ERA of 1.80 across 8 starts, although projections suggest he may have benefited from some luck, with a higher 2.52 xFIP. He projects to pitch approximately 6.1 innings today and is expected to allow around 2.2 earned runs, alongside a high strikeout rate of 6.6. However, he may face challenges against the Athletics’ offense, which, despite ranking 11th overall, includes a few hot hitters.

On the other side, Oakland’s Gunnar Hoglund is projected to struggle. With only 2 starts under his belt, he has a commendable ERA of 2.38, but his xFIP of 2.99 suggests he hasn’t been as dominant as his numbers indicate. Hoglund is expected to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow around 3.1 earned runs, which could be a problem against a potent Dodgers lineup.

With the Dodgers’ offense ranking 2nd in home runs and 3rd in batting average, they are well-equipped to exploit any mistakes from Hoglund. The betting odds heavily favor the Dodgers, reflected in their moneyline of -265 and an implied team total of 5.23 runs. In contrast, the Athletics are projected for only 3.27 runs, making this matchup one to watch for betting enthusiasts.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+200)
  Gunnar Hoglund is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  JJ Bleday has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s change-up usage has risen by 5.3% from last season to this one (24.1% to 29.4%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-290)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-290)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)